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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/80096

    題名: A forecasting decision on the sales volume of printers in Taiwan: An exploitation of the analytic network process
    作者: Shih, Hsu-Shih;Stanley Lee;Shun-Hsiang Chuang;Chiau-Ching Chen
    貢獻者: 淡江大學管理科學學系
    關鍵詞: Management decision making;Judgmental forecasting;Analytic Network Process;Dependence and feedback;Forecasting-related applications;Analytic Hierarchy Process
    日期: 2012-09
    上傳時間: 2013-01-17 17:51:24 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Kidlington: Pergamon
    摘要: This study applies the Analytic Network Process (ANP) to forecast the sales volume of printers in Taiwan for adjusting the recycling and treatment fee as an incentive for recycling industries. When historical data are lacking and when a broad spectrum of social impact is involved, the ANP, with the capacity to manage dependence and feedback among the factors, can serve as a tool to forecast outcomes by using expert judgment. The priorities derived from numerical judgment are similar to probabilities. They are obtained from the limit supermatrix of the ANP that represents forecasts for the next period. The result of back testing has shown that the ANP’s percentage error is small compared with those of some naïve statistical techniques. Sensitivity analysis is also made to ensure robustness of the model. Finally, the characteristic strengths of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and ANP in forecasting are discussed to simplify their use in future applications.
    關聯: Computers & Mathematics with Applications 64(6), pp. 1545–1556
    DOI: 10.1016/j.camwa.2011.12.082
    顯示於類別:[管理科學學系暨研究所] 期刊論文


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