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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/7828

    Title: 線性非常態時間序列預測方法之研究
    Other Titles: Studies on Forecasting of the Non-Gaussian Linear Time Series
    Authors: 虞國興
    Contributors: 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系
    Keywords: 線性模式;非常態時間序列;預測;無關機率分布點繪法公式;Linear models;Non-Gaussian time series;Forecasting;Distribution freeplotting position formula
    Date: 1995
    Issue Date: 2009-03-16 16:56:32 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: Swift及Janacek(1991)提一方法加以預測非常態 時序,由於其基本假設為資料所滿足之機率分 布必須已知,此一假設限制其應用範圍,因大多 數實測資料所屬之機率分布通常為未知,又,傳 統上機率分布之判定爭議頗大.為解決此一缺 失,本研究採用虞及黃氏(Yu and Huang 1992)所提之 無關機率分布之點繪法公式,另,本研究亦提一 方法用以產生線性非常態時序合成資料.本研 究中之主要目的為:(1)探討本研究所提方法用 以預測線性非常態時序之適切性;(2)探討本研 究所提方法用以產生線性非常態時序合成資料 之適切性;(3)比較本研究所提方法與Swift及 Janacek方法之預測能力;(4)比較本研究所提方法 與傳統方法用以分析水文時序之預測能力.
    Appears in Collections:[Graduate Institute & Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering] Research Paper

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