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    題名: 中共石油戰略研究(1993-2010)
    其他題名: The research on China's petroleum strategy
    作者: 曾泰溢;Ceng, Tai-Yi
    貢獻者: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班
    王高成;Wang, Kao-cheng;張中勇
    關鍵詞: 石油安全;中國石油戰略;石油與國際政治;Oil Security;China's Petroleum Strategy;Oil and International Politic
    日期: 2012
    上傳時間: 2012-06-21 06:52:00 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 石油安全是西方工業大國在遭受第一次石油危機衝擊之後提出來的,現已成為世界大國竭力追求的重要戰略目標之一。石油安全既關係到經濟安全,又關係到國家安全,現在石油安全與國際政治的關係也越來越緊密。
    過去,石油安全是指減少石油消費和進口的依賴性。石油供應安全指數用石油進口依賴程度來表示,石油進口依賴程度越高,石油供應安全度就越低。現在經過二十餘年的發展,傳統的石油安全觀已悄悄改變,經濟全球化已使石油從戰略性資源和“武器”回歸到一般商品的屬性,在國際市場上可以買到任何所需要的礦產資源,石油進口依存度與石油供應安全已沒有必然關係。
    當前產油國與消費國之間的關係正在向互相依賴、共同合作的方向發展,故意中止石油供應的可能性越來越小,但自然災害、技術上的障礙及政治混亂所引起的危險還是存在的。此外,石油進口國和出口國間相互依賴關係明顯增強,而海盗、恐怖攻擊以及各類事故導致油井或者管線封鎖、油輪停航的風險也有加大趨勢。鑒於這一客觀現實,中國大陸既要承認國際油市有了很大的發展,石油安全形勢有了很大的變化;又要認識到世界局勢的複雜性,發生大規模石油供應中斷並帶來重大經濟損失的可能性仍然存在。大陸明白只要石油在其能源結構中依然佔有重要的地位,那石油安全問題就必須置於國家經濟安全的高度來應對,萬萬不可掉以輕心。
    Oil security was brought up by industrialized western countries after the impact of first oil crisis, and it now has become one of the most vital strategic goals pursued by great countries around the world. Oil security is related to economic security and national security, and nowadays the ties between oil security and international politics are growing strong.
    In the past, oil security means reduction of dependency created by oil consumption and import. Oil supply security indicator is measured by the proportion of oil import: higher degree of oil import means lesser degree of oil supply security. After twenty years, conventional perspective of oil security has altered. Economic globalization has transformed the nature of oil from strategic resource or “weapon” to merely merchandise which is available from international market alone with any other mineral resource desired, and therefore solid connection between dependency of oil import and oil supply security doesn’t exist.
    Countries that export and import oil are now working towards an interdependent and cooperative course of development, hence the possibility of deliberately ceasing oil export is decreasing while, on the other hand, the risk of natural calamity, technique barrier and political chaos still exists. Furthermore, while the relations of both sides of oil-producing and oil-consuming countries gradually intertwine, the hazard of pirate, terrorist attacks or similar incidents that could cause suspension of oil-supplying chain is rising. Due to the fact stated above, China must understand the maturity of international oil market and the change of oil security situation, and additionally realize the complexity of world chessboard that could cause interruption of oil-supplying chain and lead to severe economic loss. As long as petroleum still play a major role of China’s energy structure, China must deal with oil security issue in the level of national economic security.
    顯示於類別:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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