中共政治繼承制度化趨勢研究 : 以胡錦濤時期為例

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Title:	中共政治繼承制度化趨勢研究 : 以胡錦濤時期為例
Other Titles:	The study of the China's political succession system trend under Hu Jin-Tao's period
Authors:	倪君輝;Ni, Chun-Hui
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班翁明賢;Wong, Ming-Hsien
Keywords:	政治繼承;political succession;Political elite;cross-generation succession;菁英政治;隔代繼承
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2012-06-21 06:50:42 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本文主要研究中共政治繼承出現制度化的成因及探討影響中共政治繼承的制度性與非制度性的因素，並著重點於鄧小平欽定的隔代第四任接班人胡錦濤。然而制度化是一個發展的過程，需要足夠的時間堆積才能夠從中觀察它的慣例和規則，所以除了討論「制度深化」階段的胡錦濤時期外，亦從鄧小平的「制度建立」階段開始探討其過程及背景，瞭解「制度建立」對國家整體發展的重要性，以及觀察胡錦濤是否能夠延續鄧小平的意志，為自己在歷史的定位留名。以下就是本文研究所安排的各章內容概要： 1. 第一章：緒論。主要在說明研究動機及研究目的、探討相關文獻書籍，並提出研究方法和研究途徑。 2. 第二章：政治繼承之制度化發展趨勢。在過去二十多年來中共的菁英政治隱約形成了一種模式。然而，這些模式和規範是否形成了一種制度化的趨勢，以及可能產生的影響和未來的演變。本章也嚐試解釋制度化的建立及深化。 3. 第三章：政治繼承與領導結構模式關係。此章主要是探討中共政局的環境及組成架構，及以領導人的個人出身背景、歷練、等面向來探討中共的政治繼承演變和方向。 4. 第四章：胡錦濤時代的權力接班佈署。此章以胡錦濤政治接班開始，直至真正權力鞏固的歷程，以及「十六大」到「十七大」後的人事安排及政治情勢發展及分析，再從制度性因素探討權力轉移制度化程度。 5. 第五章：結論。期從以上內容的討論和研究，歸納出中共政治繼承的制度化程度及趨勢。而在透過以上各章研究後，對中共政治菁英甄補的趨勢發展有以下幾點結論： 1. 由傳統的指定一人變為非指定的兩人競爭。 2. 派系政治仍是左右政治繼承的重要因素之一。 3. 接班人需具備一定程度的學歷及專業等指標。 4. 地方的歷練資歷和越級提升受到重視。 5. 政治繼承與制度深化仍在持續之中。 6. 「十七大」中共在「誰有權決定新一代領導班子核心的預備人選」及「透過什麼程序挑選」出現新的發展，為解決接班人選拔問題奠定基礎。 The political succession in China is particularly different from those of democratic countrie’s. Deng Xiao-ping expected to continue his policies by designating his cross-generation successor,Hu Jin-tao. The designation of political successors has become a pattern to maintain politicians’ achievements and political interests. The pattern can be understood as a process and it involves how to nurture and choose successors for next generation. The thesis serves two objectives: first, to examine PRC’s political succession on its institutionalization; second, to study the factors impacting on its political succession. This study is divided into five chapters as follows: 1. Chapter One: describes the research motives, purposes, literature review, and methodology. 2. Chapter Two:explores the formation of the political succession. For the past two decades, the elite politics emerges and has become a trend that may influence the country development. 3. Chapter Three:assesses the relationships between the political succession and its leadership. In this part, the study will present the analysis of political leaders’ personal background, working experiences and their connections with the significant politicians. 4. Chapter Four:concentrates on Hu Jintao’s strategy of how to distribute significant positions for his allies and potential successors. The chapter analyzes the power transition of Hu’s time. It includes Hu’s arrangement of political allies and analysis of political development. 5. Chapter Five:synthesizes China’s political succession and its institutionalization and provides author’s suggestion for China’s future development. The study provides recommendations the emerging developments of how Chinese current leaders designate their successors among those political elites. 1. Succession: from single candidate designation to undesignated two-candidate competition. 2. Political allies still a significant factor of succession. 3. Candidates’ requirements：diploma and professions. 4. Working experiences. 5. Rooting of Political Succession and institutionalization. 6. New development on issue of how to decide the next generation political leaders in the coming 17th People Congress Meeting
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