中國大陸糧食安全之研究

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Title:	中國大陸糧食安全之研究
Other Titles:	A research on china's food security
Authors:	郭正中;Kuo, Cheng-Chung
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班郭建中;Kuo, Chien-chung
Keywords:	中國大陸糧食安全;中國糧食安全;中國糧食;糧食安全;China's food security;China's food;food security
Date:	2012
Issue Date:	2012-06-21 06:49:23 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	中國人口眾多，人均耕地面積很少，自然資源相對不足，有效的耕地總數不足。中國為增加糧食生產、發展經濟加快工業化和城鎮化的進展，進而濫墾山林，造成工業污染，導致水土資源品質劣化，大量的河流因遭受污染而無法飲用或可供補魚，人民無法輕易取得乾淨的飲用水。對同樣是糧食生產、消費大國的中國而言，因為經濟成長逐步地滿足人民在糧食上的需求和期望，但隨著人口一直在增加，農糧土地資源一直在減少，造成糧食的供求趨緊，一直是存在的隱憂。本文以中國農糧安全為主軸，由中國大陸的糧產資源與政策切入，藉以了解中國的農糧政策與生產情況。再藉由轉由中國大陸的農糧消費需求與改變的角度，來解悉中國農糧供需的轉變與世界貿易的進行。最後試圖以中國大陸的農糧安全戰略，探究中國在內部生產與外部進口政策及戰略的運行下，中國農糧安全與否，此為我們內文所要研究。本研究運用歷史研究途徑及文獻分析法，並參考文獻資料、期刊、學者專論及網路資料，利用世界各國相關農糧資料與中國農糧狀態比較之敘述。從不同角度與面向進行資料分析，藉以瞭解中國農糧現狀與未來的需求，最後撰述個人研究結論，作為本論文之總結。本研究發現如下：(一) 中國人均糧食達360公斤水準，人民溫飽的問題上大致上已解決。(二) 中國糧食庫存量與消費量比值不低於18%的安全線，自2001年來均為聯合國標準的2倍左右，達到中國糧食的國家安全存量。(三) 中國外部進口策略，積極利用國際市場調節國內供需，通過貿易得到更多大豆及肉品，(四) 中國存在令人不安的糧食安全疑慮有：(1)仍有為數不少的赤貧及飢餓人口數(2)化學合成肥料其邊際效用的遞減已達相當之臨界(3)18億畝耕地紅線政策將無法化解政府間的利益矛盾，耕地紅線將面臨突破的危機(4)加速寄望基因改造，生物科技的擴展，無視無法抗拒的風險。　關鍵字：中國大陸糧食安全;中國糧食安全;中國糧食;糧食安全。 China has large population, less capita arable land and relative low natural resources, and then the total effective arable land is in short. The government tries to increase food production, and speed up the progress of industrialization and urbanization in the developing economy. The farming on the mountains and the pollution of industrialization, leaded to the deterioration of the soil and water resources. A large number of rivers are contaminated and unfit for drinking or available to complement the fishing. People cannot be easily to drink clean water. As a food production and consuming country, China should be worry about the shortage of the food and agriculture resource caused by the growing of the economic and the population. This research is on the basis of the security level of the food in China starting from the food resources and policy to figure out China''s food policy and production. Then change the phases to the food consumption demand and various to analysis the relation between China’s demand and the world trade. At the last, this research tries to find out the manipulate strategy of the food security level in China upon to the policy of inland production or import from other country. The historical approach and the literature analysis is the main theory of this study. Others like the reference of literature, journals, scholars’ monographs and network data are all included. A comparison between China and the world food policy from different phases is conducted to analyze and understand the current situation of China food status and future needs, as the conclusions of this research. The findings are as follows: (A) up to 360 kg per capita which has met the food standards of China people demand (B) the stock and consumption ratio is not less than 18% of the food security level, about 2 times of the United Nation standards since 2001 (C)a aggressive strategy of importation to adjust domestic supply and demand, from which to get more soy and meat, (D) the worries of the food security level: (i) there are still a large number of extreme poverty and the number of starving people (ii) the decline of chemical synthetic fertilizers marginal utility has reached a critical point (iii)the red line policy, 18 million mu of arable land, will not be able to resolve conflicts of interest between the government, and it will face a breakthrough crisis (iv) to speed up the genetic modification (GM) and expand the biotechnology will cause a irresistible risk.
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