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    題名: 臺灣股票公開發行未上市櫃公司財務危機預測之研究
    其他題名: Financial distress prediction for public companies not listed on the exchange and OTC in Taiwan
    台灣股票公開發行未上市櫃公司財務危機預測之研究
    作者: 張啟任;Chang, Chi-Jen
    貢獻者: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班
    林允永
    關鍵詞: 危機預警模式;財務比率;分界點;Model for predicting company failure;financial ratios;Z-score;Cutoff point
    日期: 2012
    上傳時間: 2012-06-21 06:35:26 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究以Altman (1968)的Z-score模型、Z-score係數重估模型及修正Z-score模型來探討台灣股票公開發行未上市櫃公司財務危機發生前一年及前二年之預測效果。研究樣本期間從2006年至2011年,共選取27家危機公司,並配對27家產業相同、資產規模相當之正常公司,以對全體樣本公司預測正確率最高來比較三種Z-score模型在台灣適用的程度。研究結果如下:
    一、財務危機發生前一年,以本文樣本分析,Altman(1968)Z-score模型及修正Z-score模型均不適用台灣股票公開發行未上市櫃公司財務危機預測。在危機發生前一年,以重估Z-score模型之74.07%預測效果最佳。
    二、財務危機發生前二年,Altman(1968)Z-score模型不適用台灣股票公開發行未上市櫃公司財務危機預測。Z-score係數重估模型預測正確率為83.33%,優於修正Z-score模型之59.26%。在危機發生前二年,Z-score係數重估模型預測效果最佳。
    三、Z-score係數重估模型及修正Z-score模型在財務危機發生前二年之預測正確率均高於危機發生前一年。
    This study uses Altman(1968)Z-score model, reestimated coefficient and revised Z-score model, to test the predition accuracy of business failure, during 2006-2010 public companies not listed on the exchange and OTC in Taiwan .
    The selection process was based upon a paired-sample deign. We select 27 delisted companies and 27 nondilisted companies of the same industry and asset size for this predition study.
    1.According to this study, as per the annual financial report one year prior to financial distress, Altman Z-score model is not suitable for the predition of business failure in Taiwan. The reestimated coefficient Z-score model 74.07 %. is the best one.
    2.With regard to the annual financial report two year prior to financial distress, Altman Z-score model is not suituble for predition. The predition accuracy of reestimated coefficient model is 83.33%, better than the 59.26 % of revised Z-score model.
    3.By using reestimated coefficient model and revised Z-score model to test the predition accuracy of business failure in Taiwan, the annual financial report two years prior to financial distress is better than the annual financial report on year prior to financial distress.
    顯示於類別:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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