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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/77285

    題名: A new piecewise fuzzy exponential smoothing model based on some change-points
    作者: Tsaur, Ruey-chyn
    貢獻者: 淡江大學管理科學學系
    關鍵詞: Forecasting;Fuzzy exponential smoothing model;Change-point;Piece wise fuzzy exponential smoothing model
    日期: 2011-06
    上傳時間: 2012-06-14 10:32:37 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Kidlington: Pergamon
    摘要: In our previous studies we proposed the fuzzyexponentialsmoothingmodel for extrapolation under a vague system with limited data. However, some change-points in the collected data always generate to enlarge a forecasting interval which provides the decision maker with little information to make some decisions. Therefore, in this study we defined the change-points and the piece forecasting intervals for deriving the piecewisefuzzyexponentialsmoothing interval, and we can effectively determine the future trends for decision. Finally, an illustrated example has been used to verify the effectiveness and confirm the potential benefits of the proposed model with a smaller and piecewise forecasting interval.
    關聯: Expert Systems with Applications 38(6), pp.7616-7621
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2010.12.099
    顯示於類別:[管理科學學系暨研究所] 期刊論文


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