生育率下降的新成因探討---老年經濟保障對生育的排擠效果

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Title:	生育率下降的新成因探討---老年經濟保障對生育的排擠效果
Other Titles:	The Crowding-Out Effects of Old-Age Economic Security on Fertility
Authors:	林彥伶
Contributors:	淡江大學經濟學系
Date:	2011
Issue Date:	2012-05-07 14:46:22 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	生育率下降的新成因探討-- 老年經濟保障對生育的排擠效果本研究擬探討造成當前生育率「持續」下降的原因。在戰後嬰兒潮之後，生育率在許多國家至今仍呈現持續下降的走勢。早期生育率下降是工業化下社會轉型的結果，影響的因素包括有女性的教育程度、薪資與勞動參與率等項目。然而這些女性社會經濟特徵，在二十世紀末期的許多先進國家中，皆已發展趨緩，無法再以解釋當前生育率趨勢。因此造成當前生育率仍然持續下降的原因，應與老年經濟保障政策改變家庭財富流動方向有關。本研究以台灣的家庭生育數為觀察對象，採用1990 年至2008 年的台灣家庭收支調查資料進行研究，衡量老年經濟保障政策的實施對生育意願的影響。本文將採用Double-hurdle 模型估計老年經濟保障政策實施對生育數量的影響。此外，以工具變數法考慮政策與生育數量內生性的問題。本研究亦進一步估計實施老年經濟保障政策對家庭財富流動方向的影響。 The Crowding-Out Effects of Old-Age Economic Security on Fertility This study investigates the effects of old-age economic security on fertility. The fertility rate appears a downward tendency in many countries after the postwar baby boom. In the early years the fertility rate decreased due to the industrialization. While the factors, such like female education level, wages and participation rate, all have developed in the end of 20th century, are unable to explain the current fertility rate tendency. We consider that the old-age economic security leads family wealth flows veer around so that reduces the desire of fertility. In this research we use a multi-year cross-sectional data from the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure to investigate the old-age economic security effects. Double-hurdle model estimation is adopted to address the effects on the number of births. An instrumental variable strategy is adopted to consider the endogenous of the old-age economic security and number of births. We also estimate the effects of the old-age economic security on family wealth flows.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Economics] Research Paper

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