近年來因溫室效應導致全球氣候變遷，除全球氣溫升高之暖化現象外，亦造成降雨型態之改變，水患、乾旱等降雨集中等極端事件之頻仍發生。本計畫之目的係引入日雨量繁衍之模式方法，以探究集水區在氣候變遷之影響下，致使長期降雨型態之改變對區域流量之影響，以提供長期農業水資源調適策略之參考與應用。 計畫中，將探討降雨集中與不降雨日數增長等兩級化現象，以及降雨型態改變對整個集水區逕流之衝擊。本計畫重要工作項目及架構包括： 1.建立計畫集水區不同降雨情境之雨量繁衍模式。 2.建立計畫集水區之長期水文模式。 3.以重要水庫集水區為研究區域，推估降雨型態特性變遷對區域流量之衝擊。 本計畫預期可建立長期降雨型態特性之繁衍推估模式，並評估在不同降雨型態特性變遷下區域流量之衝擊。希冀藉由上述之研究結果可提供未來水文氣候變遷與長期農業水資源調適策略之參考與應用。 In recent years, the global climate has been changed by the greenhouse effect. Not only the global temperature was raised and warming, but the rainfall pattern was changed. The floods, droughts and other extreme events was happened more frequency. The purpose of this project is to establish a method to generate daily rainfall, and study the impact of regional flows by the changes of rainfall patterns due to the climate change. Furthermore, the methodology of the project will be a referential role for the adaptive strategy of water resource allocation in the future. In this project, we will study the impact of regional flows by the changes in rainfall patterns, such as rainfall concentrated and non-rainy days were raised. There are some important items in this study as followed 1. Establish a method to generate daily rainfall in different rainfall scenarios for a reservoir upstream basin as project area. 2. Establish a long term hydrologic model for a reservoir upstream basin as project area. 3. Estimate the impact of regional flows by the changes in rainfall patterns for a reservoir upstream basin as project area. Finally, we expected to establish a generating model for long term rainfall pattern, assess the impact of regional flows in different rainfall pattern, and hope to the study results can also be a referential role for the adaptive strategy of water resource allocation in the future.
