本研究經過分析風險因素的特性以及對決策風險值的影響方向，歸納出四類的關鍵風險因素，並以Branch and Bound演算法為基礎，開發出可在FORAS推論架構下，搜尋可讓決策風險值變得更好或是變得更差的關鍵因素與路徑的演算方法，並開發出推論的系統，進行系統實作的驗證，經過與合作航空公司的測試之後得到了令人滿意的結果。 The Flight Operations Risk Assessment System (FORAS) developed by Tamkang University is a risk assessment tool that will estimate risk associated with a flight operation. This risk is estimated using a fuzzy inference model that synthesizes a variety of inputs, including information on crew, aircraft, and flight sector. This study provides a methodology based on the Branch and Bound algorithm to identify those inputs that contribute most significantly to the estimated flight risk.
According to the proposed methodology, the risk inference chain can be highlighted and be able in some cases to suggest possible interventions for the flight safety managers to prevent high flight risk. To verify the feasibility and usability of this methodology, a tool has been developed and tested in an international airline in Taiwan. The testing results are very impressive.
