建構一個飛航風險分析模式

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Title:	建構一個飛航風險分析模式
Other Titles:	Create an aviation risk assessment model
Authors:	陳韋強;Chen, Wei-Chiang
Contributors:	淡江大學資訊管理學系碩士班徐煥智;Shyur, Huan-Jyh
Keywords:	飛行操作風險評估系統;模糊決策樹;風險分析;敏感度分析;FORAS;Fuzzy tree;Risk analysis;Sensitivity analysis
Date:	2011
Issue Date:	2011-12-28 18:32:19 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究建構出新的飛行操作風險評估系統架構，飛行操作險評估系統主要是透過多樣性的輸入資訊進行飛航操作的風險分析，其中包含了機組人員、氣候、機場或是飛航器等因素。而本系統也會根據各風險因素的關聯性將各飛航風險因素加以結合並計算最後的風險值，最後航安管理人員可以根據飛航風險數值的高低，針對高風險的航班進行有效的飛航安全防範措施。飛行操作風險評估系統的多項雛型系統已由NASA、美國海軍研究室以及航空公司相繼研發，然而缺乏有效的數學論模組，並且無法有效的使用階層式架構將各風險節點屬性之關聯性結合；而本研究發展出樹狀式架構以及風險數值推論引擎等相關系統工具，提供圖形化操作介面協助使用者建立客製化的飛行操作風險評估模組，以及發展出敏感度分析模組評定建立之推論模型的可行性和可用性。 This research has developed a new framework to create flight operations risk assessment system (FORAS). FORAS will assess risk associated with a flight operation using a mathematical model which synthesizes a variety of inputs, including information on crew, weather, airports, sector, and aircraft and so on. The system will identify those factors that contribute most significantly to the calculated flight risk. According to the information, the safety manager and other users may be able to provide some actions to prevent the high risk of a flight. FORAS development is in the proof-of-concept phase. Several prototyping systems have been developed by NASA, Naval Research Laboratory and some airlines. However, due to the lack of efficient tool to generate and maintain the core mathematical model in FORAS, the system has a barrier to implement using various hierarchical structures to relate various risk attributes for various airlines. This study has developed a framework for creating FORAS hierarchical structures and mathematical models. The related tool has been implemented. It provides a graphical user interface to assist users in implementing their customized FORAS models and a sensitivity analysis module to evaluate the feasibility and reliability of their proposed models without any additional assumption.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Information Management] Thesis

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