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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/74400

    Title: 建構一個飛航風險分析模式
    Other Titles: Create an aviation risk assessment model
    Authors: 陳韋強;Chen, Wei-Chiang
    Contributors: 淡江大學資訊管理學系碩士班
    徐煥智;Shyur, Huan-Jyh
    Keywords: 飛行操作風險評估系統;模糊決策樹;風險分析;敏感度分析;FORAS;Fuzzy tree;Risk analysis;Sensitivity analysis
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2011-12-28 18:32:19 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究建構出新的飛行操作風險評估系統架構,飛行操作險評估系統主要是透過多樣性的輸入資訊進行飛航操作的風險分析,其中包含了機組人員、氣候、機場或是飛航器等因素。而本系統也會根據各風險因素的關聯性將各飛航風險因素加以結合並計算最後的風險值,最後航安管理人員可以根據飛航風險數值的高低,針對高風險的航班進行有效的飛航安全防範措施。
    This research has developed a new framework to create flight operations risk assessment system (FORAS). FORAS will assess risk associated with a flight operation using a mathematical model which synthesizes a variety of inputs, including information on crew, weather, airports, sector, and aircraft and so on. The system will identify those factors that contribute most significantly to the calculated flight risk. According to the information, the safety manager and other users may be able to provide some actions to prevent the high risk of a flight.
    FORAS development is in the proof-of-concept phase. Several prototyping systems have been developed by NASA, Naval Research Laboratory and some airlines. However, due to the lack of efficient tool to generate and maintain the core mathematical model in FORAS, the system has a barrier to implement using various hierarchical structures to relate various risk attributes for various airlines. This study has developed a framework for creating FORAS hierarchical structures and mathematical models. The related tool has been implemented. It provides a graphical user interface to assist users in implementing their customized FORAS models and a sensitivity analysis module to evaluate the feasibility and reliability of their proposed models without any additional assumption.
    Appears in Collections:[資訊管理學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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