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    Title: 代理人基政治預測市場 : 群聚效果與資訊擴散
    Other Titles: Agent-based political prediction markets : clustering effect and information diffusion
    Authors: 吳東霖;Wu, Dong-Ling
    Contributors: 淡江大學產業經濟學系碩士班
    池秉聰;Chie, Bin-Tzong
    Keywords: 零智慧代理人;預測市場;訊息加總;雙向拍賣;冷熱門馬偏誤;小世界網路;Zero-Intelligence Agent;Prediction Market;Information Aggregation;Double Auction;Favorite-Longshot Bias;small-world network
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2011-12-28 17:43:56 (UTC+8)
    Abstract:   近十年來,台灣的民主體制愈漸健全。民主社會,經由投票的方式,收集眾人意見,決定適當的政策或候選人。若這是一個完全無互動的社會,那麼在議題公佈後,幾乎同時已經決定了結果,因為人們只需忠於自身信念,選擇支持或不支持。所幸,我們並不是機器,而是擁有情感與想法的人類。由人與人之間微妙的互動關係,產生這千變萬化的社會。透過這層關係,我們的想法將受其他人或環境所影響,使得最終結果難以捉摸。

      我們以零智慧代理人,建構了一個簡單的政治預測模擬市場,其中代理人參考周圍鄰居的政治傾向,產生自身的信念,再將信念反映到出價上,並以雙向拍賣的方式在市場中交易,這隱含著預測市場統合訊息的功能,最後產生平均價格,該價格與標準差是很好的預測指標。我們研究鄰居的範圍和居住的群聚效果對預測精確性的影響。此外,我們的模型不但可以精確地複製出冷熱門馬偏誤(favorite-longshot bias),在相關條件成立下,更產生逆轉的冷熱門馬偏誤(reverse favorite-longshot bias)。最後,引入小世界網路改變代理人獲取資訊的方式,發現網路效果取代群聚效果,並使逆轉現象消失,結果恢復為傳統在預測市場中的現象-冷熱門馬偏誤。
    We model a basic agent-based political prediction market with zero-intelligence (ZI) agents. The ZI agents form their belief by referring to neighbors’ political preference and then make their orders in a double auction future market. The market efficiently aggregates information and dynamically forms trading prices. In a market without further information, average price will be a good predictor. We investigate the market efficiency by setting various radii of neighbor and effects of clustering. Our model replicates favoriate-longshot bias and reverse favoriate-longshot bias under specific conditions. When radius of neighbor is replaced by social network, the reverse bias turns into typical favoriate-longshot bias.
    Appears in Collections:[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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