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    Title: 中共「反介入戰略」(Anti-access Strategies)中戰略轟炸機的能力研究
    Other Titles: The strategic bomber warfighting capability of China anti-access strategies
    中共反介入戰略中戰略轟炸機的能力研究
    Authors: 鄭信政;Cheng, Hsin-Cheng
    Contributors: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    曾復生
    Keywords: 反介入戰略;戰略轟炸機;巡弋飛彈;嚇阻;匿蹤科技;遠程打擊;Anti-access strategy;Strategic bomber;cruise missile;deterrence;Stealth technology;Long-range attack
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2011-12-28 17:07:13 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 美國著名的國防事務研究智庫「蘭德公司」,每年針對國際或特定國家等重要軍事發展,發表重要的學術研究報告,這些報告雖出於一般學者個人或團隊的的觀察,但是其對於軍事事務深入性,仍具有一定性代表地位。特別是,在中共軍事現代化發展已達到讓世人感到瞠目結舌的狀況下,世人才驚覺其軍力崛起已影響到周邊或其他國家的安全,特別是我國的生存發展及美國的國家利益。
    2007 年5 月,蘭德公司發表一篇研究報告,該篇研究報告以深入龍穴為題,其探討中共近年進行「反介入/區域拒止」的戰略發展,特別是涉及國家主權的台灣問題,因為中共始終認為處理台灣問題,首要面對的即是美國的軍事介入。因此,中共近年發展其軍事科技,除展現其國家自信外,其最終目的即為處理其核心問題時,其軍事力量可提供嚇阻第三勢力介入,達成其可能對主權維護的宣稱。故研究中共反介入戰略發展,為當前我應審思的方向,因為其運用除對第三勢力造成軍事傷害外,亦可能轉向對我進行軍事破壞,實為我當前重要課題。
    本篇探討中共在反介入戰略發展之研究,針對其戰略轟炸機之現況、發展進程、武力投射與優勢,評估其實力,與可能對美國產生的嚇阻力量,同時進行比較,以了解其中差異與強弱區別。本研究達成的結果如后:
    一、中共從近代軍事改革潮流中,獲得足以改變其軍事作戰型態之要素,特別是對第三國家的嚇阻力量。
    二、中共體認發展長程攻擊載具與武器,將可以對戰爭產生重大改變,同時將降低對本身軍事力量的傷害性。
    三、中共積極發展遠程戰略轟炸機,以遂行遠距精準作戰能力,然受限其科技技術瓶頸,仍無法突破,因此積極透過採購、逆向工程進行研製。
    四、中共深知戰略性核武器運用,可能造成全面性毀滅,故極力進行巡弋飛彈研製,特別是空射型巡弋飛彈研製工程。
    五、嚇阻力量的建立,將可以達成其國家利益或目標的發展,特別是處理其國家主權問題。
    RAND, America famous MOD research institution, publishes international military development academic research reports about specific countries every year. Because of RAND role,
    those reports are not only deeply civilian thought and observation but also represent sponsor’s perception. Especially, the rapid development of People Republic Army (PLA) has been surprised most of countries in the world. The result of PLA military modernization makes the world aware of that PLA’s capabilities are rising so abrupt that may change regional security. It will affect Taiwan’s
    future and threaten America’s national interest.
    One of RAND’s reports, titled“Deep into the dragon cave”, published in May 2007, is an
    outstanding study for who is interested how PLA to carry out “anti-access/area denial(A2/Ad)” strategy which is based on the strategy to solve Taiwan issue under the assumption of third party intervention leaded by the United State. On this study PLA believes that if it wants to achieved its
    national goal, building a modern military supported with advance military technology is a key to deal with superior US power. Therefore, understanding what the A2/AD strategy is and how PLA to fulfill it is critical issue for Taiwan and its potential allays. This report will briefly introduce the essence of PLA’s anti-access strategy from the development of strategic bombers and weapon
    systems.
    The central piece of this study is about how the capability of strategic bombers to serve
    anti-access strategy, and the evolution of anti-access strategy effected by the new bombers, what the
    future development may be seen. To evaluate A2/AD strategy, it should start from understanding the
    superiority and vulnerability of US military power so that we can conclude the effect of A2/AD
    strategy after PLA adds new capabilities. The founding of this report are:
    1. Because PLA has been learning from the trend of military affair revolution, it PLA is alerting
    its pillars of the warfighting patterns, especially denying foreign intervention.
    2. PLA released that long-range attack weapon and platform will create dramatic change of the
    consequence of the war and preserve own military strength through deceasing damage by
    enemy.
    Appears in Collections:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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