|摘要: ||朝鮮半島局勢發展長久以來一直牽動東北亞的區域安全穩定，而北韓的動向及態度，又是朝鮮半島問題之關鍵。本論文係以國家利益為研究途徑下，結合朝鮮半島與中國大陸之歷史和地緣特性，探討中共歷任領導到胡錦濤時期中共的北韓政策之呈現及運作。而另一個重點，當北韓動輒以發動武力事端為要脅，內求鞏固政權、對外爭取援助。就中共立場而言，為了符合本身的國家利益及國際環境對其「和諧世界」主張的檢視，必須運用理性思考及採取相應作為以達到國際間可以接受的結果，並避免迫使北韓走向戰爭邊緣的危險位置。 |
The regional stability of Northeast Asia has been correlated with the situation in Korea Peninsula, on which the North Korea is a key player. This paper will look back on China''s policies from inside out at different leadership period based on national interest theories and historic and geopolitical relations between the two countries. Also important,in the face of a temperamental North Korea who tends to solve crisis through military threats, China''s responsive measures have to be considered with rational calculation and put to test in the global context, so as to meet its national interest and live up to its advocacy of a harmonious world while prevent North Korea from surpassing the brink of war.
Although China contributed to the Six-Party Talks in 2003, making the mechanism an important platform for solving the North Korea nuclear problem, and mediated Peninsula issues with a philosophy of benevolence towards neighbors, its strategies were to certain degree constrained by the lack of alternatives, inefficiency of preemptiveness and improper crisis management. As a result, China had to take contingency plans as auxiliary measures when specific incidents emerged in the region. In short, there are still Spaces for China to keep up its influence. How to maintain bilateral or multi-lateral interactions with related countries will have important effects on the overall results of China''s policies.
Geopolitics is the guideline that decides North Korea problem to be a core issue.concerning China''s national interest. Whatever happens that may cause major change in North Korea, be it the regime turning into a nuclear power, a abrupt collapse, internal upheaval or outbreak of another Korean war, the best scenario China can ever imagine that is also in related countries'' best interest would be to pursue a denuclearization of North Korea and maintain the status quo. From another perspective, China''s efforts to diplomatic mediation and leading the Six-Party Talks were made out of the consideration to contain the U.S. expansion in the region and to prevent Japan from following suit in seeking nuclear capability while, at the same time, maintain the status quo that enables her to secure maximum interest by keeping equidistance with Korea and North Korea, so as to create environment in favor of its economic growth. In short, consideration of national interest is the dominating logic that shapes China''s behavioral modes.