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    Title: 胡錦濤時期中共對北韓政策之研究
    Other Titles: China's policy toward the DPRK during Hu JingTao's period
    Authors: 禹立中;Yu, Li-Chung
    Contributors: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    王高成
    Keywords: 胡錦濤;北韓;國家利益;核武危機;六方會談;Hu Jintao;North Korea;The national interest;Nuclear
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2011-12-28 17:06:06 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 朝鮮半島局勢發展長久以來一直牽動東北亞的區域安全穩定,而北韓的動向及態度,又是朝鮮半島問題之關鍵。本論文係以國家利益為研究途徑下,結合朝鮮半島與中國大陸之歷史和地緣特性,探討中共歷任領導到胡錦濤時期中共的北韓政策之呈現及運作。而另一個重點,當北韓動輒以發動武力事端為要脅,內求鞏固政權、對外爭取援助。就中共立場而言,為了符合本身的國家利益及國際環境對其「和諧世界」主張的檢視,必須運用理性思考及採取相應作為以達到國際間可以接受的結果,並避免迫使北韓走向戰爭邊緣的危險位置。

    儘管中共在2003 年促成之六方會談,成為解決北韓核武問題的重要途徑,也憑其「與鄰為善、以鄰為伴」的理念折衝半島事務,但就諸多南北韓事端處理情形觀之,其政策主要執行成果仍然存在著手段單一、預防性不佳、危機處置機制不強等制約因素,因此在區域內發生的某些特定的事件多採取應急性策略,有相當程度的掣肘中共在朝鮮半島事務上發揮建設性作用。也正是上述因素,給予中共持續發揮影響力的改善空間,如何各主要國家保持雙邊、多邊的結構性互動,將對中共的朝鮮半島政策的實質性推進發揮重要作用。

    地緣政治決定了北韓問題處於中共國家利益的重要一環,無論北韓發生任何變動,如成為核武器國家、北韓解體、內部動蕩,或發生另一場朝鮮戰爭等,對中共而言,都不如保持北韓的無核化、維持現狀,對各方國家而言都保有最大的利益。從另ㄧ個角度而言,中共之所以願意展開穿梭外交及主導六方會談機制,主要著眼在抑制美國在區域內擴張勢力,或是避免日本跟進核武化,同時也希望在維持現狀的策略下,繼續發展國家經濟,並與南北韓兩方同時保持等距外交來獲得最大利益,簡而言之,都是不脫國家利益來思考而採取的行為模式。
    The regional stability of Northeast Asia has been correlated with the situation in Korea Peninsula, on which the North Korea is a key player. This paper will look back on China''s policies from inside out at different leadership period based on national interest theories and historic and geopolitical relations between the two countries. Also important,in the face of a temperamental North Korea who tends to solve crisis through military threats, China''s responsive measures have to be considered with rational calculation and put to test in the global context, so as to meet its national interest and live up to its advocacy of a harmonious world while prevent North Korea from surpassing the brink of war.

    Although China contributed to the Six-Party Talks in 2003, making the mechanism an important platform for solving the North Korea nuclear problem, and mediated Peninsula issues with a philosophy of benevolence towards neighbors, its strategies were to certain degree constrained by the lack of alternatives, inefficiency of preemptiveness and improper crisis management. As a result, China had to take contingency plans as auxiliary measures when specific incidents emerged in the region. In short, there are still Spaces for China to keep up its influence. How to maintain bilateral or multi-lateral interactions with related countries will have important effects on the overall results of China''s policies.

    Geopolitics is the guideline that decides North Korea problem to be a core issue.concerning China''s national interest. Whatever happens that may cause major change in North Korea, be it the regime turning into a nuclear power, a abrupt collapse, internal upheaval or outbreak of another Korean war, the best scenario China can ever imagine that is also in related countries'' best interest would be to pursue a denuclearization of North Korea and maintain the status quo. From another perspective, China''s efforts to diplomatic mediation and leading the Six-Party Talks were made out of the consideration to contain the U.S. expansion in the region and to prevent Japan from following suit in seeking nuclear capability while, at the same time, maintain the status quo that enables her to secure maximum interest by keeping equidistance with Korea and North Korea, so as to create environment in favor of its economic growth. In short, consideration of national interest is the dominating logic that shapes China''s behavioral modes.
    Appears in Collections:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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