| Abstract: | 冷戰結束後，美國發展為當今世界唯一的「超級大國」，在「一超多強」的國際格局下，美國在政治、經濟、軍事和文化各方面的實力遠遠超過其他大國。尤其是在全球化時代，國內政治國際化、國際政治國內化的趨勢日益明顯，任何一國內部的政治和經濟都和世界政治與經濟緊密相連。因此，無論是中共的政經發展、社會變化，抑或是安全、外交、貿易和兩岸統一的問題等，美國都深涉其中，成為影響「中國崛起」的最大外部因素。
本研究即著眼於大陸「中國改革開放論壇」理事長鄭必堅於2003 年4 月在「博鼇論壇」發表「中國和平崛起與亞洲的未來」演講，首次提出「和平崛起」概念，藉此反擊「中國威脅論」，有關「中國崛起」的討論進入一個新的階段，對「中」美關係亦漸次產生影響。惟近年中共官方已較少使用「和平崛起」，轉而使用「和平發展」，主張透過和平而非戰爭的方式來實現「和平發展」，其面對的重大課題是如何讓大國、周邊國家接受自己，從而創造一個有利於國內改革和發展的國際環境。
研究探討的結果顯示，中共不滿美國推行單極的全球戰略，將防止出現可能挑戰其「一超」地位的國家，作為全球戰略核心目標，所以將正在崛起的中共視為威脅「一超」地位的主要障礙和潛在對手，而在臺灣問題方面，中共認為臺灣是美國遏制大陸在亞洲擴張的重要籌碼，對臺軍售是美國涉入臺灣問題的主要手段，臺灣問題仍將是影響「中」美關係的不確定因素。
在未來一段時間內，國際戰略格局不變，「中」美關係不會有重大突破，美國的對「中」政策也不會進行大幅調整，臺灣在美國全球戰略格局中的地位沒有改變，仍具有重要的「制中」作用。但是當前美國自身深陷伊拉克、阿富汗等反恐問題泥沼，「中」美軍事交流也逐漸恢復正常，近期應不致於高調地處理對臺軍售問題，引起雙邊關係的嚴重倒退。建議我政府宜持續爭取美方支持，化解其對臺軍售疑慮，俾在兩岸談判中居於主動地位。
After the Cold War, the United States developed the world''s only "superpower" in the "one superpower and many" of the international
situation, the United States in political, economic, military and cultural
strengths far more than other big countries. Especially in the era of
globalization, the internationalization of domestic politics, international
politics of the country is increasingly clear that any country''s internal
politics and the economy and world politics and economy are closely
linked. Therefore, regardless of the CCP''s political and economic
development, social change, or security, diplomatic, trade and
unification problems, which the United States are deeply involved, with
an impact on "the rise of China" the biggest external factors.
This paper focused on the mainland, "China Reform Forum," Zheng
Bijian in April 2003 in the "Boao Forum" published "China''s peaceful rise
and Asia''s Future" speech, first proposed a "peaceful rise" concept, to
fight back. "China threat theory "and the" rise of China "discussion into a
new phase," in "‐US relations have gradually have an impact. However, in recent years, Chinese officials have rarely used "peaceful rise" in favor of
"peaceful development" in favor of the war through peaceful means
rather than to achieve the "peaceful development", which face a major
issue is how to make a big country, neighboring countries to accept
themselves, thereby creating an environment conducive to domestic
reforms and international environment for development.
The results of the study showed that dissatisfaction with the United
States to implement CPC unipolar global strategy, there will be
challenges to prevent its "superpower" status of the country, as a core
objective of global strategy, it will be seen as a rising Communist threat
"superpower" status the main obstacles and potential adversaries, and in
Taiwan, the PRC considers Taiwan to contain mainland U.S. expansion in
Asia, an important bargaining chip in arms sales to Taiwan is the Taiwan
issue, the United States involved in the primary means of Taiwan issue
will continue to affect the "in" US relations of uncertainty.
In the next period of time, the international strategic situation the
same, "and" there will be no major breakthrough in US relations, the
United States to "China" policy and will not be a substantial adjustment
in the U.S. global strategic situation of Taiwan''s status has not changed,
still important "system in" effect. But the current U.S. itself bogged down
in Iraq, Afghanistan and other counter‐terrorism quagmire, "in"‐US
military exchanges have gradually returned to normal, the recent
high‐profile deal to be Buzhi Yu arms sales to Taiwan, causing a serious
setback for bilateral relations. I suggest the Government should continue
support for the U.S. to resolve its doubts arms sales to Taiwan, to serve
in cross‐strait negotiations living initiative. |
