從美國對臺軍售探討美中互動關係

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Title:	從美國對臺軍售探討美中互動關係
Other Titles:	U.S.-China interactions : from the perspective of U.S. FMS to Taiwan
Authors:	雷正寅;Lei, Cheng-Yin
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班林中斌
Keywords:	美國對台軍售;美中互動關係;arms sales to Taiwan;interactions between the U.S. and mainland China
Date:	2011
Issue Date:	2011-12-28 17:05:21 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	台灣的命運在過去幾十年，都受到美國、中國大陸、台灣之間的三角關係所制約。美中台三方面的政策是否務實、彼此有無互信、內部有無共識，乃為此三角關係得否穩定的主要因素。美國對台軍售為美國對台灣安全承諾的具體指標，在美中關係競合擺盪時，軍售議題受到的影響如何，實為一項值得研究的課題。本論文以美國對台軍售為研究對象，探討其在美中互動關係的擺盪軌跡，並比較近五任總統在國家安全戰略目標下，如何執行對台軍售，以及中共因應之道與美國相對策略，藉由相關文獻分析及歷史比較，歸納軍售對美中互動關係的影響，提出研究結論如下：一、中共應會調整對台軍事部署換取美國停止對台軍售。二、中共應會暫停軍事交流換取美國停止對台軍售。三、美國調整對台軍售流程應可避免中共抗議。四、美中關係緊張或緩和對台灣獲得新式武器產生莫大影響。五、美國對台軍售與其安全承諾密切相關。最後依據前述研究結論，歸結對台軍售在美中關係的重要性將會下降，並提出未來持續研究方向。 The fate of Taiwan in the past three decades is strongly influenced by the trilateral relations among the U.S., mainland China and Taiwan. The status of the said relations is then decided by the practicality of the policies of the three governments, the existence of mutual trust among the three, and whether there is internal consensus within each of the three countries. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are a key indicator of U.S. security commitment to Taiwan. The impact of fluctuating U.S.-mainland China relations upon U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is therefore a subject of high research value. This study targeted at U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and attempted to examine its status in relation to U.S.-mainland China relations. A comparison is made on how the past five U.S. presidents dealt with the sale under U.S. national security strategies, how mainland China responded and how the U.S. countered. Through analysis on related literature and comparison of historical records, this study concluded with the following perspectives on the influence of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan upon the interactions between the U.S. and mainland China： 1. Mainland China is expected to adjust military deployment against Taiwan in exchange of U.S. termination of arms sales to Taiwan. 2. Mainland China is expected to suspend military exchanges with the U.S. in exchange of U.S. termination of arms sales to Taiwan. 3. U.S. adjustment of arms sales process to Taiwan should be able to avoid protest from mainland China. 4. The level of tension of U.S.-mainland China relations is a strong factor deciding whether Taiwan acquires new weapons from the U.S. or not. 5. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are closely linked with U.S. security commitment to Taiwan. This study concluded with a prediction that the importance of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan in relation to U.S.-mainland China relations will diminish in the future. Directions for future studies are also proposed.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of International Affairs And Strategic Studies] Thesis

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