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    題名: A decade of Indonesia's arms maintenance program : causes and problems (1999-2009)
    其他題名: 10年印尼軍備維持計劃 : 原因與問題(1999-2009)
    作者: 溫帝;Prajuli, Wendy Andhika
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
    李大中
    關鍵詞: 印度尼西亞;理性模式;部隊現代化;國防政策;Indonesia;決策;Force Modernization;Rational Actor Model;Defense Policy;decision-making
    日期: 2011
    上傳時間: 2011-12-28 17:04:45 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究檢驗了印尼政府於1999到2009年間,選擇軍備維持計畫以實施軍隊現代化。本研究採用「理性決策者模式」,以檢驗此研究問題。本研究假設在世界上之每個國家,決策者都以謹慎小心之理性思考,制定其國防政策。因為根據理性主義者的途徑,對國家而言,國防安全議題為最重要之議題。
    但是,本研究發現了意想不到的結果。印尼的國防規劃過程,不是經由理性決策過程而被實行的。根據「理性決策者模式」之理論,理性決策過程必須依據適用選項之結果,來制定決策。決策制定者選擇對國家最有利之結果來做出決定。然而,印尼政府選擇軍備維持計畫,則僅是基於簡單考量,財政問題及無外在威脅。
    導致印尼國防規劃之非理性決定,特別是在軍隊現代化規劃方面,有五個互相關聯之因素,例:缺乏國防準則、缺乏效率、缺乏政策一致性、缺乏正確之威脅評估,以及預算導向之規劃。
    This research examines the cause of the Indonesian government to choose arms maintenance program to modernize its military forces in the period 1999-2009. My research will apply the rational actor modeI (RAM) to examine the problem. It is based on my assumption that in anarchical world decision-makers in every country will formulate its defense policy very carefully and with rational considerations because, according to realist approach, security or military issues are the most important issue for a country.
    However, during my research I found unexpected finding, namely the process of defense planning in Indonesia is not carried out through a rational process of decision-making. According to the RAM, rational process of decision making is always based on the consideration of the outcomes of the available options. Decision-makers will choose an option that has the most beneficial outcomes related to state’s goals. Otherwise, the Indonesian government chose arms maintenance program is only based on simple consideration, namely financial problems and Indonesia does not have external threats.
    The irrationality in Indonesian defense planning, especially in force modernization planning, is caused by 5 interrelated factors, i.e. no national defense guideline, inefficiency, inconsistency, incorrect threat assessment, and budget-driven planning.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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