普丁總統時期俄羅斯與伊朗關係之研究(2000-2008)

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Title:	普丁總統時期俄羅斯與伊朗關係之研究(2000-2008)
Other Titles:	A study of relations between Russia and Iran in the Putin's presidency (2000-2008)
Authors:	陳瑩蓉;Chen, Ying-Rong
Contributors:	淡江大學俄羅斯研究所碩士班彼薩列夫;Pisarev, Alexander
Keywords:	俄羅斯;伊朗;普丁;俄伊關係;Russia;Iran;Putin;Russian-Iranian Relationship;Russo-Iranian relations
Date:	2011
Issue Date:	2011-12-28 17:03:04 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	伊朗由於特殊地理位置與歷史淵源的因素，而形成與俄國之間長期的關係。兩國開始交往最早起源於15世紀，隨後歷經各時期主政者制定政策方式、國家對外發展考量與國際社會局勢的不同，而影響兩國關係時而競爭又時而合作的情況。 1991年蘇聯瓦解後造成俄羅斯不僅面臨嚴重的內部問題，其中包括蘇聯前加盟共和國獨立後嚴峻的地緣環境、軍事優勢及經濟大量損失，還遭受到來自美國、北約東擴勢力等外部因素的威脅。為改變上述困境並維護自身國家利益，伊朗成為俄羅斯選擇的重要合作對象。到了普丁(Владимир Путин)上台執政後，俄國與伊朗關係發生重大發展與突破。首先，莫斯科單方面廢除1995年與美國簽訂的高爾．切爾諾梅爾金(Gore-Chernomyrdin)協議，並宣布將廣泛與德黑蘭進行出售武器和擴大軍事合作和技術。其次，在上述的框架之下，雙方元首與高層政治人物開始不斷進行互訪交流，並因此帶來其他層面的交流活動，如:經濟、安全及國際問題等，兩國合作關係迅速升溫，並引起國際社會與地區性國家不同程度性的關注。因此本文主要探討議題為: (一)、普丁總統時期俄羅斯與伊朗之合作目的與企圖。 (二)、試圖以國家利益理論及地緣政治途徑來觀察兩國合作關係中的矛盾或衝突的情況。 (三)、影響俄羅斯與伊朗關係的主要因素來進行分析。而筆者對本文的研究心得是: 筆者觀察出俄羅斯與伊朗之間的關係是既合作又矛盾，雙方對於部分議題(如裏海、核問題)仍存在著歧異並還懸而未解，但是並不會影響目前的合作關係。在當前以美國為核心的單極體系下，俄伊之間必須拉攏對方並保持合作關係以抗衡美國。然而，俄羅斯也不會放棄與美國建立友好關係，並避免與美國的關係出現重大裂痕。當俄羅斯的國家利益及發展與俄國對美國關係出現矛盾時，俄羅斯將視自身利益的重要性程度做出對美讓步或是捍衛，更進一步而言，俄國將可能利用伊朗作為對美國的談判籌碼，因此這將對俄羅斯與伊朗之間是否能夠維持合作關係並且持續穩定，在未來仍出現極大的不確定性。同樣地，伊朗也從自身利益出發為考慮，若是未來美國改變對伊朗打壓政策甚至進一步與伊朗發展合作關係，或許美伊關係將重新回復友好。因此，筆者得出結論為俄羅斯與伊朗關係深受美國因素影響。 Iran, with the special geographical location and historical background, has formed a long-term relation with Russia. The relation of two countries began as early as in fifteen century. With the impacts of the policies set by the authorities through different epochs, the assessment of the foreign development benefit and the international social status, the relationship of two nations has been shifting between competition and cooperation from time to time. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has been facing the internal problems such as losing the important geopolitical locations within those countries being independent from former Soviet Republics and losing the military advantage and the economic benefit significantly, and in the meanwhile, also facing the threat of external forces such as United States of America and NATO’s expending. For improving the above dilemma situation and maintain their national interest, Iran becomes the important partner chosen by Russia. When President Putin was in power, there was a major breakthrough development for the relationship between Iran and Russia. First of all, Moscow unilaterally revoked Gore-Chernomyrdin agreement signed with USA and announced the plan of selling the weapons to Tehran in general and the extensive military and technology cooperation. Secondly, under the above-mentioned framework, the leaders and the high-level politicians of two nations have been visiting each other. The interaction of different activities between two nations has been increased. For example: in the aspects of economy, security and international affairs, two nations have been developing the partnership rapidly, and therefore, the international community and regional countries have paid attention with different degrees of concerns. The discussion topics of this article are: 1.The purpose and intention for the cooperation between Iran and Russia when President Putin is in power. 2.Observing the contradiction and conflict of the partnership between two nations according to the Theory of National Interest and Geo-Political Approach. 3.Analyzing the major elements that will affect the partnership between Russia and Iran The author’s learning from this article is: The author has observed that the relationship of Russia and Iran has been between cooperative and conflict. Although two nations have the disagreements (such as the Caspian and the nuclear issues) on some topics that remain unresolved, the current partnership of two nations has not been impacted. Under the current extreme system of U.S.A being the international core nation, Russia and Iran have to maintain the good relationship and work together in order to contend the power of USA. However, Russia has never discarded the opportunity to build up a good relationship with USA and has been avoiding any damage for the relationship with USA. When facing the conflict between maintaining the National Interest and developing the relationship with USA, Russia would decide to compromise or to against USA based on what their National Interest is affected and sometimes would use Iran as bargaining power with USA. Therefore, whether Russia and Iran can maintain the partnership stably will be very uncertain in the future. Likewise, Iran will also consider their National Interest. If USA changes their policies by developing the partnership with Iran instead of suppressing them, the relationship between USA and Iran may be restored. Therefore, the author believes that relationship between Russia and Iran is impacted deeply by the factor of USA.
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