本研究運用時間序列多項方法，深入研究台商赴大陸投資和物價、工資、匯率、出口、失業率五個總體經濟變數間的互動關係。以提供企業或是廠商於未來是否該進行赴大陸投資，甚或政府決策單位是否應擴大開放台商赴大陸投資的參考。 本研究先經由單根檢定之測試，發現台商赴大陸投資的金額與五個總體經濟變數均符合I(1)的序列型態。而由Johansen共整合檢定得知，台商赴大陸投資的行為與總體經濟存在著長期均衡關係。 由衝擊反應函數來看，台商赴大陸投資的金額對其本身產生自發性衝擊時，將會顯著影響其他未赴大陸投資企業從事赴大陸投資的意願；而物價及工資對台商赴大陸投資的金額變化皆有負向的衝擊。而失業率受到台商赴大陸投資金額的衝擊後，出現一個顯著而且持續性的反應的影響。 由變異數分解的結果來看，左右企業赴大陸投資的最主要原因還是來自於每一個月台商赴大陸投資金額的變化，另外工資對企業從事大陸投資活動之波動(變異)產生的解釋能力也隨著時間的增長而不斷增加，而就總體的環境變異與赴大陸投資金額而言，赴大陸投資的金額只有在解釋失業率之波動時，具有較高的解釋力。另外，大體而言，當代表總體經濟環境的五個變數〈物價、工資、匯率、出口、失業率〉發生變動時，均顯示出其本身對自身之變異產生有較好的解釋能力。 而在因果關係檢定所得到的結果為，台商赴大陸投資金額僅領先於失業率，而代表其他四個總體經濟變數〈物價、工資、匯率、出口〉均領先於台商赴大陸投資金額的變動，總而言之，總體經濟環境的變化可做為未來是否會出現赴大陸投資風潮的一個指標，而赴大陸投資金額的變化也可視為領先景氣變動的一個參考值。 This study applies various time-series methodologies to investigate the dynamic relationship among variables of China FDI from Taiwanese businessman and Taiwan macro economy including inflation, wage, exchange rate, export and unemployment. The purpose of this study is to propose suitable investment strategies for Taiwanese businessman when making the China FDI decision and appropriate polices for Taiwan government when making the cross-strait FDI polices. We first employ the unit root test for each variable and find that all the variables considered are I(1) non-stationary series. The further test of cointegration finds that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables considered in the paper Illustrated from the impulse response function, we see that the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman is significantly responded to the shock of itself. Furthermore, the response of the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman is negatively related to the shock of inflation and wage, and on the other hand, positively and consistently related to the shock of unemployment. The results of variance decomposition show that the fluctuation of the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman is mainly explained by itself. However, wage increases it’s explaining power to the fluctuation of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman when time pass-by. On the other hand, the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman can only explain the fluctuation of unemployment rate. Nevertheless, the fluctuations of each of the macro economic variables are mostly explained by each of the variables. The final results from the Granger causality test show that the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman only precedes the unemployment rate, while as it is preceded by the rests of the macro economic variables, inflation, wage, exchange rate and export.
