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    Title: 人口減少與高齡少子化所帶給日本經濟發展的影響
    Other Titles: Decrease in population, declining birthrate and aging society influences on Japan's economic growth
    人口減少高齢少子化が日本の経済成長に与える影響
    Authors: 吳鋐瑋;Wu, Hong-Wei
    Contributors: 淡江大學亞洲研究所碩士班
    小山直則;Koyama, Naonori
    Keywords: 人口減少;高齡少子化;勞動力人口;經濟成長;生產函數;TFP;Decrease in population;Aging society with a declining birthrate;Labor force;economic growth;Production function;total factor productivity;高齢少子化;労働力人口;経済成長;生産関数
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2011-12-28 16:24:14 (UTC+8)
    Abstract:   日本在高齡化與少子化所帶來的人口減少影響下,所帶給經濟最為直接的衝擊乃是勞動人口數的低下。透過內閣府總務省統計局所公佈的數據,吾人可以發現此兩者間乃是有正向關係存在。但是除了這兩者間的關係之外,人口減少與高齡化.少子化在其他與經濟成長相關聯的各種要素方面是否亦有著間接性質的影響力存在?若有,則對這些要素所產生的影響為正向為負向?對整體的經濟又是如何?本研究乃是基於此問題意識而起,企圖透過研究的進行來探討未來日本在人口減少與高齡化少子化的影響之下,所造就出企業的生產性與諸生產要素的變化。並且更進一步的利用柯布道格拉斯型生產函數的概念,藉著現有的資料數據來實際推演自2010年至2030年為止日本未來的潛在經濟成長的可能性並加以討論,來總合前述的各種生產要素所產生的變化對整體經濟的影響。
      透過探討現存的研究文獻中發現,人口數量與結構變化對於經濟整體的供給面與需求面都會有所影響。除了最為明顯的勞動人口減少之外,在消費規模方面則是伴隨著人數而下降,消費傾向則是偏向於人口比率逐漸增加老年人為主,並且在儲蓄方面,透過生命周期假說(Life Cycle Hypothesis)配合老年人的增加可推測未來的平均儲蓄率將會降低。透過這些因素,將會帶給企業的生產性以及整體的經濟發展上不利的影響。
      透過內閣府所公佈的統計數據並加諸條件限定後進行試算,我們可以明顯觀察到前述的生產要素直到2030年時的變化程度。相較於最多勞動人口數的1998年相比,2030年時勞動人口整整少了約613萬人左右,占了1998年勞動人口總數的9%。在平均儲蓄率方面,則是從2010年的26%起,2030年時減少成25.4%,造成了總儲蓄額的降低。而這些導致在2010年到2030年期間GDP成長率成約–0.2%~–0.4%左右的程度。
      然而透過技術進步促使TFP成長,對於因人口減少與高齡少子化造成的負面影響將可被抵銷。藉由試算結果,維持現有經濟規模以TFP成長率0.25%最為理想。因此,對於未來不僅是促使勞動人口比率增加,如何提升人力資本,以及更有效率的利用有限的投資等等,這些提升TFP成長率的方式探討,將會是人口持續減少中的日本未來重要的議題之一。
    With decreasing in population from the effects of aging society and declining birthrate, Japan’s labor favor also become decreasing and that make a big impact to the macroeconomic in Japan. The Statistics Bureau and the Director-General for Policy Planning of Japan promulgate the statistics about number of population and labor favor and possible to find out that both of them have positive correlation by researching the data of statistics. Without this factor, decreasing population whether make indirect effects to other expenses factors. If that’s true, what’s influence will be happen on macroeconomic? By this awareness of the issues, the purpose of this paper is to clarify that business productivity and factor of production change with decreasing in population about aging society and declining birthrate in future in Japan. And use the production function of Cobb-Douglas to attempt from A.D. 2010 to 2030 about the possibility of economic growth by production factors changing.
    Looking up to the literatures of the research, and found out that change the population size and composition will let both of supply side and demand side in macroeconomic become changing too. In addition to the most obvious the labor force is not only one factors, intern of scale of consumption is declining with population’s decrease. And consumption trend will tendency to elderly people that increasing now in Japan. Average savings ratio will became decreasing in future that base on life cycle hypothesis. These factors will make enterprise of production and economic development adversely affected.
    Based on the data of production factors that promulgation from Cabinet Office in Japan, by doing simulation with setting the assume conditions for the change about economic in A.D. 2010 to 2030. That got the results that labor favor will be decreased from 67.93 million people in A.D. 1998 to 61.8 million people in A.D. 2030. And the average saving rate will become 25.4% in A.D. 2030 from 26% in A.D. 2010. All of these factors make a result that GDP growth will be decreased 0.2%~0.4% a year in the term of A.D. 2010 to A.D. 2030.
    However, increase TFP growth (example: grow up labor-saving technological progress) that can draw minus effects by capital and labor’s change. By simulation with pilot calculation, the ideal result is make the TFP growth to 0.25% a year to keep the immediate economic of scale. It is expected that without to promote labor force increase, there still have other way about enhancing the human capital, result the way to use of investment most efficiently, can make economic growth will not to be decrease in future. And how to grow up the TFP growth will become one of the important issues for economic in Japan that continued decreasing population.
    Appears in Collections:[亞洲研究所] 學位論文

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