Improved grey prediction models for trans-Pacific air passenger market

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Title:	Improved grey prediction models for trans-Pacific air passenger market
Authors:	Hsu, Chaug-ing;溫裕弘;Wen, Yuh-horng;Hsu, Chaug-ing
Contributors:	淡江大學運輸管理學系
Keywords:	Aviation;Economics;Passenger Transportation
Date:	1997-08
Issue Date:	2011-10-23 13:43:08 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Abstract:	This study examines the precision of the Grey forecasting model applied to samples based on demand and sales in the global integrated circuit (IC) industry. In doing so, the main objective is to explore which forecast model is most appropriate for the IC industry by comparing the empirical results from the Grey model (GM), time series and exponential smoothing. Furthermore, three residual modification models are applied to enhance the forecasting results. Empirical results indicate that the GM is better suited to short-term predictions than to mid- and long-term predictions. Meanwhile, the Markov-chain residual modification model achieves reliable and precise results.D 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.
Relation:	Proceedings of the International Aviation Simulation and Modeling Conference, pp. 87-107
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Transportation Management] Proceeding

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