二○○○年三月十八日對台灣的政治發展史是一個非常重要的日子，因為這是第一次民進黨候選人陳水扁當選總統，也是第一次中華民國憲政史上可以實驗「共治」的機會，但因總統候選人陳水扁不願依憲法運作，而組織所謂「全民政府」，在沒有立法院多數黨的支持下，陳總統及新政府所提出的外交政策會有何發展，值得觀察與分析。 本文第一部分說明民進黨及陳總統外交政策的內容，大致可區分為：灱指導性或方向性層面分如民主外交、環保外交、經貿外交、人道外交、睦鄰外交及全民外交等；牞策略性層面如加強雙邊及多邊關係的策略，參加NGO、第二軌道外交策略等。第二部分分析外在及內在因素對執行這些政策的限制。第三部份則展望新政府外交政策的可能發展。 研究結果發現：灱政黨輪替並未帶來台灣外交政策的戲劇性改變，與外國一般具相對的穩定性；牞新政府外交政策走回蔣經國總統時代的「實質外交」，放棄李登輝總統的「務實外交」；犴美國政府對台灣外交決策的影響力將增強，台灣新政府外交自主性將會縮小；犵民主外交及環保外交成效將會有限，經貿外交、人道外交及援外政策較能產生具體效果；玎未來部分民眾會不滿意這種外交停滯現象。之所以會有這種走向主要是受到內外在因素壓力所造成。 March 18, 2000 is an important date in the history of political development
of Taiwan. It is for the first time the DPP access to the power of central
government. The KMT become the opposition party. The new government would
imply change of Taiwan foreign policy. It is our interest to analyze the impact of
political alternance on the evolution of Taiwan foreign policy.
This paper is divided into three parts: The first part is to present the major
content of new government foreign policy. The second part is to analyze the
constraint factors that would exert influence on the new government policy. The
external factors and internal factors are our principal analytical subjects. The last
part is to prospect on the development of new government foreign policy.
From the above studies, we can get several findings: (1) Taiwan political
alternance does not imply a dramatical change of its foreign policy which shows
relatively stable; (2) The new government returns to the ex-president Chiang
Ching-Kuo’s “substantial diplomacy” and abandons the ex-president Lee
Teng-Hui’s “pragmatical diplomacy”; (3) Washington will increase its influence
on Taiwan foreign policy and Taipei will lose more and more its autonomy on the
decision-making of foreign policy; (4) The effectiveness of “democratic
diplomacy” and “ecological diplomacy” will be limited and the “economic and
trade diplomacy”, “humanitarian diplomacy” and “aid diplomacy” will get
positive results; (5) The diplomatical immobilism will imply the dis-satisfaction
of certain categories of people. All these tendencies are the consequence of
interaction between internal and external constraint factors.
