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    題名: Investment project valuation based on a fuzzy binomial approach
    作者: Liao, Shu-Hsien;Ho, Shiu-Hwei
    貢獻者: 淡江大學經營決策學系
    關鍵詞: Project valuation;Fuzzy numbers;Real options;Flexibility;Uncertainty
    日期: 2010-06
    上傳時間: 2011-10-20 16:13:09 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Philadelphia: Elsevier Inc.
    摘要: The typical approaches to project valuation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls. One is that DCF parameters such as cash flows cannot be estimated precisely in an uncertain decision making environment. The other one is that the values of managerial flexibilities in investment projects cannot be exactly revealed through DCF analysis. Both of them would have significant influence on strategic investment projects valuation. This paper proposes a fuzzy binomial approach that can be used in project valuation under uncertainty. The proposed approach also reveals the value of flexibilities embedded in the project. Furthermore, this paper provides a method to compute the mean value of a project’s fuzzy NPV. The project’s fuzzy NPV is characterized with right-skewed possibilistic distribution because these flexibilities retain the upside potential of profit but limit the downside risk of loss. Finally, this paper discusses the value of multiple options in a project.
    關聯: Information Sciences 180(11), pp.2124–2133
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2010.02.012
    顯示於類別:[管理科學學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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