管理當局與分析師發布之盈餘預測，均為投資人重要之參考資訊，但管理當局財 測與分析師之盈餘預測二者間應具有內生性，本研究探討管理當局盈餘預測對分 析師盈餘預測精確性之影響。本研究以民國87 年至91年5 年度台灣上市與上櫃 公司之資料進行分析，研究發現管理當局所發布之財測資訊的確有助於增進分析 師續後盈餘預測之精確性，而且性質上屬於壞消息之管理當局財測相對於性質上 屬於好消息之管理當局財測，更有助增進分析師盈餘預測之精確性。惟管理當局 前一年度財測精確性之紀錄，並不會影響分析師當年財測修正之精確度。本研究 另進行數個敏感性分析，發現前述研究結果仍然成立。 Both the management financial forecasts and the analyst earnings forecasts are the important information for investors. The endogenous relationship between these two kinds forecasts implies that analysts might forecast in accordance with managements'guidance. The purpose of this study is to explore the influence of management financial forecasts on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts. According to the sample data from 1998 to 2002, this study finds that management financial forecasts can improve the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts significantly. In particular, bad news management forecast benefits more for the analysts than the good news. However, there is no relationship between the accuracy of management financial forecast in the prior year and that of analyst earnings forecast. The main results of this study are not influenced by the sensitive analysis.
