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    題名: 定錨調整經驗法則對審計及投資判斷之影響及其除誤方法之設計:選擇性接取模型之應用
    其他題名: The Influence of Anchoring Effect on Auditing and Investing Judgment and the Design of Debiasing Method: The Application of Selective Accessibility Model
    作者: 顏信輝;朱炫璉
    貢獻者: 淡江大學會計學系
    關鍵詞: 定錨調整;選擇性接取模型;反向思考;審計判斷;anchoring and adjustment;Selective Accessibility Model;consider the opposite;auditing judgment
    日期: 2004
    上傳時間: 2009-03-16 13:34:27 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 「定錨調整」是Tversky and Kahneman (1974)所提出之一種決策判斷的經驗法則,定 錨效應描述人類制定估計判斷時,會先參考一初始值(定錨點)後再加以調整,以形 成最終之估計判斷,但調整卻常出現不足之現象,故最後之估計會受到初始值(即使 是無意義者)之有系統的影響,形成了決策之偏誤。諸多研究都支持人類在解決許多 估計性之問題時的確廣泛使用定錨調整策略,但是對於形成定錨效應之心理機制,卻 少有研究直接探究。 本研究將進行三個實驗,以期有系統的探討定錨效應對我國受試者專業判斷之影 響。實驗一分別以審計之分析性複核任務與未上市股票之投資判斷為題材,測試定錨 效應之堅韌性,了解決策問題與經驗高低是否影響定錨效應之產生。第二個實驗將直 接探討產生定錨效應之可能心理機制,根據Mussweiler and Strack (1999)所提出之選擇 性接取模型(Selective Accessibility Model),分別探討選擇性假說(肯證之假說檢定) 與接取假說(語意提示)是否具捕捉定錨效應心理過程之能力。第三個實驗則設計反 向思考策略(consider the opposite)以作為定錨效應之除誤工具,並實證此策略之除誤 有效性。 本研究之預期貢獻如下:1.累積更多定錨效應對我國會計專業判斷影響之本土化實 證證據,2.測試選擇性接取模型是否具解釋我國受試者產生定錨效應心理機制之能力, 3.設計反向思考之除誤策略,以期免於定錨調整經驗法則之偏誤影響,有助決策判斷品 質之提昇。「Anchoring and adjustment」 is one of well-known heuristics described by Tversky and Kahneman (1974). Anchoring effect as a process in which people make estimates by starting from an initial value that is adjusted to yield a final answer and adjustments are typically insufficient. Research suggests that people use an anchor-and-adjust strategy to solve a variety of estimation problems. In most of cases, adjustment is often insufficient, resulting in a bias. In marked contrast to this exceptional empirical and theoretical significance, little is know about the processes that lead to anchoring effect. This study comprises three experiments to explore the anchoring effect of auditors』 as well as investors』 judgment, to test the psychological mechanisms of anchoring effect, and to examine the debiasing effectiveness of 「consider the opposite」 strategy. First of all, the anchoring effects on analytical review judgment as well as on stock evaluation judgment, and the experience effect on anchoring effect will be analyzed. Secondly, base on the Selective Accessibility Model (Mussweiler and Strack, 1999), this study will explore the mechanisms and examine the hypothesis that anchoring effects may be based on a mechanism that combines two fundamental notions of social cognition research: hypothesis-consistent testing and semantic priming. With the third experiment, we provide evidence of the effectiveness of the 「consider the opposite」 debiasing design for anchoring effect. The contributions of this study are as following: 1.To accumulate more empirical evidence of anchoring effect on accounting professional judgment in Taiwan. 2.To explore the underlying processes of anchoring effect directly. 3.To design and test the debasing tool of anchoring effect.
    顯示於類別:[會計學系暨研究所] 研究報告

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