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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/61471

    Title: 選舉賭盤之價格形成
    Other Titles: The Price Formation in Election Gambles
    Authors: 陳安琳;高蘭芬;湯惠雯
    Contributors: 淡江大學保險學系
    Keywords: 效率資本市場;選舉賭盤;選舉證券市場;邊際投資人;政治證券;Efficient markets hypothesis;Election gamble;Election stock market;Marginal trader;Political security
    Date: 2006-11-01
    Issue Date: 2013-04-11 14:24:25 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 臺北市:政治大學選舉研究中心
    Abstract: 在效率資本市場的假說下,市場交易價格可以反應出市場中的所有資訊。本文指出選舉賭盤或是選舉證券市場(election stock market)的政治證券(political security)也是服從效率資本市場假說,其賭盤價格或政治證券價格也能反應出市場對於選舉的相關資訊。本文強調選舉證券市場的交易價格在理論與實證研究上,都能預測選舉結果,顯示效率資本市場假說再次獲得支持。雖然選舉證券市場政治證券價格能準確預測結果,但並不代表其價格都沒有套利空間存在。在投資人存在有政治偏好時,套利機會經常出現。但由於邊際投資人(marginal trader)的存在,使得選舉證券市場政治證券最後交易價格終能正確預測選舉結果。
    Under the efficient markets hypothesis, the market price should be able to reflect all the information in the markets.?In this paper, we further confirm the validity of efficient markets hypothesis by showing that the election gamble price or the price of the political security can effectively predict the election outcomes. Even though the election stock market can predict the election very precisely, there still exists arbitrage opportunity in the election stock markets. The wish-fulfillment phenomenon causes the traders to buy their favor candidates leading to bias of the market price. However, the marginal traders usually trade without wish-fulfillment bias to facilitate the efficiency of the market price.
    Relation: 選舉研究=Journal of Electoral Studies 13(2),頁145-165
    Appears in Collections:[風險管理與保險學系] 期刊論文

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