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    题名: Flexible Fourier Stationary Test in Per Capita GDP for Central Eastern European Countries
    作者: Chang, Hsu-ling;Su, Chi-wei;Zhu, Meng-nan
    贡献者: 淡江大學國際貿易學系暨國際企業研究所
    关键词: Fourier Stationary Test;structural change;trend breaks;Real GDP per capita
    日期: 2011
    上传时间: 2011-07-28 00:54:42 (UTC+8)
    出版者: University of Rijeka
    摘要: The main goal of the paper is to investigate whether real GDP follows a trend
    stationary or a different stationary process. Our hypothesis is that real output is
    characterized by a non-linear mean reverting process. It is flexible Fourier
    stationary unit root test proposed by Enders and Lee (2004, 2009) to assess the nonstationary properties of the real GDP per capita that has been applied for nine
    Central Eastern-European Countries from 1969 to 2009. The results of our research
    have proved that Fourier stationary unit root test has higher power than linear
    method if the true data generating process of per capita real GDP is in fact a
    stationary non-liner process of an unknown form with structural change using the
    low frequency components. The investigation of the stationary of per capita real
    GDP from the non-linear point of view provides strong evidence clearly indicating
    that real output is well characterized by a non-linear mean reverting process, namely
    in Bulgaria, Latvia and Romania. The evidence is that these three countries are nonlinear stationary, implying that per capita real GDP follows a steady rate of growth,
    and policy innovations rather then have temporary effects. These results have
    important policy implications for macroeconomic policy, modeling, testing and
    forecasting for Central Eastern-European Countries.
    關聯: Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics: Journal of Economics and Business 29(1), pp.51-63
    显示于类别:[國際企業學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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