An Evaluation of Leading Indicators of Currency Crises

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Title:	An Evaluation of Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
Authors:	Su, Chi-wei;Chang, Hsu-ling;Zhu, Meng-nan;Zang, Qiao
Contributors:	淡江大學國際貿易學系暨國際企業研究所
Keywords:	Currency crises;binary quantile regression;probit model;logit model
Date:	2010-11
Issue Date:	2013-06-13 11:22:15 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Lagos: Academic Journals
Abstract:	This study tries to construct leading indicators for currency crisis using probit model, logit model and binary quantile regression. The empirical results show that the Inflation rate, Stock price index, Import growth rate, export/GDP, direct investment abroad, GDP growth rate, terms of trade changes, financial derivatives and domestic credit/GDP have significant effects on the occurrence of currency crisis. The Logit model is better than the probit model and binary regression quantiles which is certain, and the Financial derivatives and Direct investment abroad are useful for leading indicators of currency crises.
Relation:	African Journal of Business Management 4(15), pp.3321-3331
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of International Business] Journal Article

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