一般在缺乏流量觀測地區從事河川引(取)水上，僅能以簡單面積比例方式推估可能之逕流量，不易掌握長期可靠之水量。在面臨全球化之氣候異常之影響，未來必然造成水文不確定升高及水源供應不穩定之衝擊。本計畫之目的為探究集水區氣象、水文在時間、空間之分布特性與潛能水量可靠度之關係，以提供農業水資源調適策略之參考與應用。 計畫中，將進行長期水文模式方法之研析，並探討模式中相關氣象、水文參數之設定方式，進而推求未設站地區之不同可靠度之潛能水量。本計畫重要工作項目及架構包括： (1) 集水區氣象、水文時空特徵關係之研析； (2) 集水區潛能水量推求方法與模式評估； (3) 重要水庫集水區為研究區域，分別推求不同可靠度之水量。 本計畫預期可建立以氣象、水文時空特徵關係為基礎之潛能水量推估方法，並以研究區域為案例示範，推求不同可靠度之水量。希冀藉由上述之研究結果可提供未來農業水資源調適策略之參考與應用。 In general, estimating discharge is just only by proportional to its upstream area, if there are few observation records. Hence, it is not easy to get over the regional reliability of water resources. Additionally, it is also raised the hydrologic uncertainty and more risky of regional water supply caused by the global climate change. The purpose of this project is to build up the relationship between the potential water resources and spatiotemporal characteristics of meteor-hydrology. Furthermore, the methodology of the project will be a referential role for the adaptive strategy of water resource allocation in the future. In this project, to evaluate and decide a suitable algorithm to estimating regional potential water resources, the long term hydrologic models will be adopted to explore their specific items, such as physical concepts, assumptions, and parameters setting. There are some important items in this study such as below: (1)To exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteor-hydrology; (2)To evaluation a suitable algorithm to estimating a basin's potential discharge; (3)To estimating the various reliability of water quantity for a reservoir upstream basin as project area. It is expected to build the algorithm to estimating a basin's potential discharge, and take a reservoir upstream basin as project area. Besides, the results can also be a referential role to adjust adaptive strategy for water supply in the future.