人口老化是目前全世界各國所面臨的難題，壽命延長可能會改變個體之風險趨避程 度，接著改變其投資或消費行為，進而影響股票市場報酬率及總體經濟。過去文獻多探 討壽命延長與股票或商品等單一市場之間的關係，但是個體決策行為並非彼此獨立而是 具有相關性。然而實證方法受限於資料性質，無法探討長壽風險對於多元決策之影響。 本計畫主要目的是利用實驗設計，邀請受試者參與實驗，在所設計的情境中進行消費、 投資、購買保險及房屋等四種決策，以觀察在壽命延長對於多元決策之影響。 本計畫第一部分是以Kaplow (2005)的文章為基礎，建立跨期消費與投資模型，然 後邀請受試者參與實驗。在實驗中蒐集受試者的決策過程，用來估計理論模型推導的風 險趨避係數。第二部分邀請受試者參加多期決策實驗，在過程中蒐集受試者的決策，以 觀測長壽風險下受試者年齡、風險趨避、財富等因素對於消費、投資、保險及購屋四種 決策的影響及各種決策彼此之間的關係。期望本計畫能夠幫助釐清長壽風險對於個體風 險趨避程度及多元決策之影響，並且使我們更了解壽命延長與消費、投資、購買保險及 房屋的個別關係，以利後續實證研究之進行。 The mortality rates improved has been well-recognized by all countries in the world. The increasing of life expectancy may change individual’s attitude of risk aversion, then affect the expected return of stock market and macroeconomics. Although a large number of studies have been investigated the relationship between mortality rates improvement and one specific market, little attention has been given to test the relationship between longevity risk and multi-dimensional decisions. The purpose of this project is to investigate how the longevity risk affects four different decisions including consumption, investment, buying insurance and houses in the experiment. At the beginning of this project, the theoretical model based on Kaplow (2005), create two-periods consumption and investment model. Then, we can estimate the coefficient of risk aversion of theoretical model by recording the attendants’ reactions in the experiment. The second part of this project is the dynamic multi-periods choice process. By collecting the information from the experiment, we can observe how increasing of life expectancy and risk aversion affect individual’s consumption, investment, buying insurance and houses decisions. Wish the results of this project can provide us a clear version of relationship between longevity risk and multi-dimensions decision.
