| Abstract: | 本研究的主要目的，是想了解生育率與經濟因素之間的關聯性。首先，本文說明生育率在許多先進國家不斷下滑，臺灣，也無法避免這種趨勢，而生育率下滑造成人口結構的轉變，引起了社會大眾的關注。其次，本研究由減輕婦女負擔、教育、經濟補助及租稅優惠等四方面整理了現今我國對於生育政策的鼓勵措施，並對照法國、瑞典、日本、新加坡及美國在此方面的做法。接著，本研究探討影響生育率的非經濟因素與經濟因素。最後，本研究利用中央健康保險局的承保資料庫，希望藉由公、勞保及單、雙薪二類群體間的比較，以間接的方式來解釋所得的穩定性與否是否會影響生育意願，冀望經由本研究的實證結果，能對政府未來提出之生育政策有所幫助。
本研究透過對樣本的二大分類-公、勞保群體及單、雙薪群體進行實證研究後發現，收入的不穏定會影響生育行為，而且，若加上外在經濟的衝擊，更達到統計上的顯著效果，顯示了生育行為會因為經濟因素而受到顯著的干擾。而進一步以所得高低分組驗證，得到了中低所得者會因經濟因素的介入而影響生育行為，且達到統計上的顯著。因此，在現今政府鼓勵生育的措施多著重於經濟補助的情形看來，對高所得者而言效果自然十分有限。建議未來政府政策能多從減輕父母負擔、教育政策等方面著手，且在研擬相關政策時，應兼顧人口質量之考量。
The purpose of this study analyzes the correlation between fertility rates and economic factors in Taiwan. First, this study clarifies the trend of fertility rates change in OECD countries, and indicates the decline of fertility rates will face the problem of population aging. Taiwan, also have the same situation. Second, this study gathers the population policies on encouraging fertility in Taiwan, including burden reducing, childcare, economical support and tax benefit, compare with France, Sweden, Japan, Singapore and Unite State. Third, this study also analyzes the factors of economic and non-economic which affect fertility. Finally, by using the National Health Insurance Data from 1998 to 2008, this study adopts “Difference in Difference” method and analyzes the birth behavior between two groups, named Stable income group and Unstable income group.
The primary finding is that the correlation between fertility rates and economic factors do reach statistically significant. Therefore, means birth behavior maybe can be encouraged by economic subsidy. However, the study also finding that only the lowest income group and middle income group reach statistically significant. Thus, this study suggests government not only focus on quanaity, but also care about the quality. Therefore, social welfare policies like burden reducing and childcare could provide friendly environment for the couples. |
