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    题名: 臺灣上市櫃公司財務危機預測之研究
    其它题名: Financial distress prediction for publicly listed companies in Taiwan
    台灣上市櫃公司財務危機預測之研究
    作者: 徐景宏;Hsu, Ching-Hung
    贡献者: 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班
    邱忠榮;林允永;Chiou, Jong-Rong;Lin, Yun-Yung
    关键词: 危機預警模式;財務比率;分界點;Model for predicting company failure;financial ratios;Z-score;Cutoff point
    日期: 2011
    上传时间: 2011-06-16 21:52:50 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究以Altman (1968)的Z-score模型、Z-score係數重估模型及修正Z-score模型來探討台灣上市櫃公司財務危機發生前一年及前二年之預測效果。研究樣本期間從2005年至2009年，共選取39家危機公司，並配對39家產業相同、資產規模相當之正常公司，以對全體樣本公司預測正確率最高來比較三個Z-score模型在台灣適用的程度。研究結果如下：
    一、財務危機發生前一年，以本文樣本分析，Altman（1968）Z-score模型不適用台灣上市上櫃公司財務危機預測。修正Z-score模型預測正確率為82.05%，優於Z-score係數重估模型之80.77%。在危機發生前一年，以修正Z-score模型預測效果最佳。
    二、財務危機發生前二年，Altman（1968）Z-score模型不適用台灣上市上櫃公司財務危機預測。Z-score係數重估模型預測正確率為78.21%，優於修正Z-score模型之61.54%。在危機發生前二年，Z-score係數重估模型預測效果最佳。
    三、Z-score係數重估模型及修正Z-score模型在財務危機發生前一年之預測正確率均高於危機發生前二年。
    This study uses Altman（1968）Z-score model, reestimated coefficient and revised Z-score model, to test the predition accuracy of business failure, during 2005-2009 in Taiwan publicly listed companies.
    The selection process was based upon a paired-sample deign. We setect 39 delisted companies and 39 nondilisted companies of the same industry and asset size for this predition study.
    1.According to this study, as per the annual financial report one year prior to financial distress, Altman Z-score model is not suitable for the predition of business failure in Taiwan. The predition accracy of revised Z-score model is 82.05%, better than the 80.77% of reestimated coefficient model.
    2.With regard to the annual financial report two year prior to financial distress, Altman Z-score model is not suituble for predition. The predition accuracy of reestimated coefficient model is 78.21%, better than the 61.54% of revised Z-score model.
    3.By using reestimated coefficient model and revised Z-score model to test the predition accuracy of business failure in Taiwan, the annual financial report one year prior to financial distress is better than the annual financial report two year prior to financial distress.
    显示于类别:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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