國際觀光旅館經營績效影響變數之研究 : 縱橫門檻迴歸模型之實證

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Title:	國際觀光旅館經營績效影響變數之研究 : 縱橫門檻迴歸模型之實證
Other Titles:	The study on the factors affecting the business performance of international hotel : application of panel threshold regression model
Authors:	張瀞文;Chang, Jing-Wen
Contributors:	淡江大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班聶建中
Keywords:	旅館經營績效;匯率;觀光旅館經營策略;縱橫門檻迴歸模型;Threshold Auto-regression;panel threshold
Date:	2011
Issue Date:	2011-06-16 21:52:32 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	自2008年，政府開放大陸觀光客來台旅遊，以休閒為目的之旅客人數高速成長，台灣觀光旅遊業一片榮景，台灣地區國際觀光旅館之研究亦成當代顯學。本研究臆測影響台北國際商務旅館之經營效率之五項部份重要解釋變數，對旅館之經營效率(以住房率OCR表示)，可能存在一組上下不對稱之非線性（nonlinear）關係，為驗證此一門檻效果是否存在，本研究以縱橫門檻迴歸模型加以實證，惟實證之結果未能拒絕無門檻效果之虛無假設，使評價國際觀光飯店經營績效之計量模型回復到一般之多元迴歸模型示。然而，本研究對於傳統線性迴歸模型之實證，得到不錯之結果，並將其轉化為易於瞭解之策略義涵：在搭機來台旅客人數不易掌控，旅館房間數(規模)短期之內不易擴充之情況下，對住房率有具有顯著正向影響力之四個策略性變數是平均房價(PRI)、休閒目的旅客佔旅客總數比率(POT)、團體旅客佔旅客總數比率(GOT)及客房部員工對總員工比率(ROT)；PRI及ROT對住房率顯著為正之影響，意指台北國際觀光旅館吸引旅客的關鍵因素在與平均房價同步成長的客房部門人力，足以印證發展「高價位/高品質」之服務，乃是正確的策略方向；POT與GOT對住房率顯著為正之影響，意指台北國際觀光旅館之行銷策略，應導向以休閒為目的之團體旅客群，此一策略涵義與當前(2010年)，台灣政府當局全面開放大陸旅客來台之政策方向不謀而合；以高品質服務支持之高價位房價策略，招徠以休閒為目的之團體旅客群，是台北國際觀光旅館業提升經營績效當務之急，管理階層不可不知。 Since 2008, Taiwan authorities has allowed mainland tourists to visit Taiwan. The number of the tourists for leisure has grew up fast, and that growth brought Taiwan tourism into a ‘boom’ and also the study of international tourist hotels in Taiwan become the contemporary popular doctrine. This study hypothesize that there exist threshold effects of five important explanatory variables on the business performance of Taipei international business hotel. Therefore, this study empirically employs the panel threshold regression model elaborated by Hansen (1999) to fulfill the aims of this research. However, the empirical results failed to reject the null hypothesis of no threshold, so that we apply the traditional multiple regression model for our further evaluation for the business performance of international tourist hotels. The significant findings of our traditional LS provide an easy understanding of strategy implications. In the situation that it is difficult to control the number of the inbound passengers to Taiwan and that the number of hotel rooms (size) is not easy to expand in the short term, the empirical results show significant positive effects of four strategy variables, PRI、POT、GOT and ROT, on housing rates, the proxy for business performance of international hotel. The positive effects of PRI and ROT on housing rates implies that the higher price of the average room fee comes with the better service for entertaining the hotel guests and thus attracting more tourists to international tourist hotels in Taipei. This evidence is in conformity with the “high price / high quality” managerial strategy. The significantly positive effects of POT and GOT on housing rates implies that the marketing strategy of international tourist hotel in Taipei should be oriented by the group tourists. The implication of the above strategies is in accordance with the pllicy nowadays by Taiwan authorities for allowing mainland visitors to Taiwan. The strategy that high quality services come along with the high price of room fee bringing more tour groups seems an urgent matter to managerial staffs for increasing the business performance.of Taipei international tourist hotel.
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