| 摘要: | 2005年泰國眾議員選舉，泰愛泰黨獲得空前的壓倒性勝利，塔克辛也順利連任首相。但是在塔克辛第二任期，執政面臨越來越多的反彈聲浪。社會上，人民民主聯盟大規模示威抗議；政治上，反對黨杯葛塔克辛解散眾議院重新選舉。泰國持續的政治僵局和社會動盪，終於在2006年9月19日晚間，以陸軍總司令頌提將軍為首的民主改革委員會，趁首相塔克辛前往紐約參加聯合國大會之際發動政變，成功地推翻塔克辛政府，整個過程和平未發生流血衝突。這是自1932年實施君主立憲制以來，第20次軍事政變。
本論文透過國家安全委員會出版的《泰國的民主修護：事實的敘述：2006年9月19日前後》指出的8項政變理由，以及從政變成因三面向：軍隊集團利益受損、文人政府合法性降低、經濟低度發展的刺激，探討與分析泰國2006年民主改革委員會政變的成因。憲法架構下，探討行政、立法和司法部門的分權與制衡，並且比較政變前後三者之間的變化。另外，從政治、經濟和社會層面，探討這場政變所帶來的影響與變化。最後，從政變後的政治，試圖解釋與預測未來泰國政治發展能否健全穩定。
研究發現，首先2006年政變最主要的成因與文人政府合法性降低較相關，同時8項政變理由大致上符合政變前的情況。其次，政變所帶來的變化，並沒有如同國家安全委員會預測，泰國政治、經濟和社會方面皆是向上提升。再者，政府機關權力與制衡的變化，可以發現2007年憲法提高行政和立法部門的約束，憲法法院對政治影響力提升。最後，泰國目前還難以判斷是否會進入政變的密集期，不過政變後憲法法院所扮演仲裁的重要角色有助於泰國的政治發展。
After the 2005 Thai general election, Thai Rak Thai Party won a landslide victory, Thaksin Shinawatra was also re-elected Prime Minister successfully. However, Prime Minister Thaksin’s second term faced growing opposition. People''s Alliance for Democracy Large-scale protests, and oppositions boycotted dissolution of the House of Representatives. Since then, Political deadlock and social unrest in Thailand have been continuously growing. Finally on 19 September 2006 evening, while Prime Minister Thaksin attended the United Nations General Assembly in New York, the Council for Democratic Reform led by the commander-in-chief of Royal Thai Army General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, staged a coup d’état to overthrow Thaksin government successfully. The whole process was peaceful and no bloodshed, so called Thailand''s 20th military coup.
This thesis based on Restoring democracy in Thailand: A factual account : before and after 19 September 2006 published by Council for National Security, and three causes for the coup: the military group interests, the legitimacy of civilian government reduced, to analyze the causes of Thailand’s coup in 2006.And, to discuss the checks and balances between the executive, legislative and judicial branches under the constitutional framework, and compare the change between the three before and after the coup. In addition, from the three fields of changing politics, economy, and society, this thesis explored the impact of the coup. Finally, this thesis explained and predicted whether the political development in Thailand would be stable or not.
As the findings of this thesis, the main causes of Thailand’s coup in 2006 has relevant to the legitimacy of civilian government reduce, the reasons for the coup were also consistent with the situation before the coup. Secondly, the consequences of the coup haven’t happened as the Council for National Security expected. As for improving Thailand''s politics, economy, and society, 2007 Thailand’s Constitution enhanced the constraints on executive and legislative branches, and promoted the political influence of the Constitutional Court. Finally, It’s still difficult to judge whether Thailand will enter an intensive period of the coup or not, but the Constitutional Court played an important role in arbitrating after the coup, the court will contribute to Thailand''s political development. |
