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    題名: 中共石油安全措施 : 以軍事外交穩定供給來源(1993-2009)
    其他題名: Oil security measures by PRC : stabilizing source of supply with military diplomacy
    作者: 吳炬宏;Wu, Jiun-Horng
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    曾復生
    關鍵詞: 石油安全;軍事外交;石油運輸;軍事佈署;軍售;Oil Security;Military Diplomacy;Oil Transportation;Military Deployment;Military Weapons Trades
    日期: 2011
    上傳時間: 2011-06-16 21:46:27 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 史帝芬‧李柏(Stephen Leeb),曾在2004年的《石油效應》一書,首次促請大家注意石油危機。當時引發相當大的爭議,尤其書中預測:「到2010年,原油價格將會上漲到每桶100美元」。然而在2008年4月6日油價就已升破140美元,達到歷史高點,可見百元油價的時代已提早來臨,未來將會持續飆升。
    2007年,史帝芬‧李柏(Stephen Leeb)與格林‧史垂西(Glen Strathy)於其續作《石油衝擊》一書,強調:「在這場危機中最令人憂心的是,國家領導人與專家是否曾認真思考危機存在的程度。為何選擇繼續安撫大眾,告訴他們今天飛躍上漲的能源價格只是暫時性現象,石油的蘊藏量無限,生產會超過需求」,但為何油價依然飆升,能源供需持續失衡。
    國際石油安全研究機構強調,石油進口依存度在50%以上的國家,必須要透過政治、外交、軍事等措施來維護其石油安全。一方面確保「買得到」,二方面確保「運得回」。石油安全是中共未來發展的基礎,故如何獲得穩定的石油供給來源,在中共的石油安全議題上,已非單純的經濟問題,而是涉及政治、經濟、軍事等各層面,必須以國家安全的視角來因應。
    對中共而言,石油運輸通道關係著中共的國家經濟安全核心利益,面對運輸路(航)線複雜的傳統、非傳統威脅,中共在確保石油供應安全的作為上,正在進行美國學者所稱的「珍珠鏈」戰略。期藉由外交與軍事並進的兩手策略,以維護其海上運輸通道的安全,尤其是軍事外交此等微妙的手段。
    綜上所悉,「軍事外交」確實是中共穩定石油供給來源的首選,然而軍事外交所涉範疇甚多且廣,它不僅限於軍事領域中的軍事援助、軍售、軍事合作,它也可能包括政治外交的範圍,如武力恫嚇、國際聲援等;隨著中共綜合國力的不斷增強及國際地位的日益提升,中共與世界各國的軍事交往已開始向縱深方向發展,互動的領域更加寬廣,內容亦更加豐富,不啻是區域安全的最後決策者,未來將因石油之分配與爭奪,和歐、美間形成微妙關係,石油可能成為區域強權的衝突點。
    Stephen Leeb first drew everyone’s attention to oil crisis in his 2004 book, “The Oil Factor.” The book caused considerable controversy at the time particularly with the prediction of: “by 2010, the crude oil price will break US$100.00 per barrel.” However, the oil price already exceeded US140.00 on April 6th, 2008, reaching a record high. Apparently, the era of hundred-dollar oil has arrived early and the price will continue to soar in the future.

    In his sequel book with Glen Strathy in 2007, Stephen Leeb stressed that: “The most worrisome thing in this crisis is whether if the national leader and experts seriously thought about the extent of the existing crisis. Why do they choose to continue appeasing the public and tell them that the leap on rising energy price is only temporary phenomenon? There are unlimited oil reserves and the supply exceeds demand.” However, the oil price still soars and the imbalance between energy supply and demand continues.

    Research institutes for security of international oil stress that 50% of countries with dependence on oil imports must maintain oil security through means in politics, diplomacy and military. On one hand, they must ensure “they can buy it” and on the other hand, they must ensure “they can transport back home.” Oil security is the foundation of future development for the PRC; therefore how to attain stable sources of oil supply is no longer the economic problem in simple term with respect to oil-security issues for the PRC. The issue involves aspects of politics, diplomacy and military, which must be responded with perspective on national security.

    For the PRC, oil transportation bears the national and economic core security interests for China. When faced with the complex traditional and non-traditional security threats from transportation routes, the PRC is undertaking the “String of Pearl” strategy addressed by American scholars, in actions taken to ensure oil supply security. China expects to maintain security in maritime transport corridor via the two-pronged strategy in diplomacy and military, particularly with subtle means in military diplomacy.

    In view of the above, “military diplomacy” is truly the preference for PRC in stabilizing sources of oil supply. However the scope involved with military diplomacy is relatively extensive, which is not only limited to military aid, military sale and military cooperation but it could also include scope in political diplomacy such as threat of force and international solidarity. As the comprehensive national strength of PRC continues and its international status rises, the military exchange between China and countries in the world have begun to develop in the depth indirection, broadening areas of interaction and enriching the content. The PRC serves no less than the final decision-making of regional security and forms a subtle relationship with Europe and the United States for future allocation and completion in oil. Oil is likely to become the conflict point of regional power.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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