|摘要: ||史帝芬‧李柏（Stephen Leeb），曾在2004年的《石油效應》一書，首次促請大家注意石油危機。當時引發相當大的爭議，尤其書中預測：「到2010年，原油價格將會上漲到每桶100美元」。然而在2008年4月6日油價就已升破140美元，達到歷史高點，可見百元油價的時代已提早來臨，未來將會持續飆升。|
2007年，史帝芬‧李柏（Stephen Leeb）與格林‧史垂西（Glen Strathy）於其續作《石油衝擊》一書，強調：「在這場危機中最令人憂心的是，國家領導人與專家是否曾認真思考危機存在的程度。為何選擇繼續安撫大眾，告訴他們今天飛躍上漲的能源價格只是暫時性現象，石油的蘊藏量無限，生產會超過需求」，但為何油價依然飆升，能源供需持續失衡。
Stephen Leeb first drew everyone’s attention to oil crisis in his 2004 book, “The Oil Factor.” The book caused considerable controversy at the time particularly with the prediction of: “by 2010, the crude oil price will break US$100.00 per barrel.” However, the oil price already exceeded US140.00 on April 6th, 2008, reaching a record high. Apparently, the era of hundred-dollar oil has arrived early and the price will continue to soar in the future.
In his sequel book with Glen Strathy in 2007, Stephen Leeb stressed that: “The most worrisome thing in this crisis is whether if the national leader and experts seriously thought about the extent of the existing crisis. Why do they choose to continue appeasing the public and tell them that the leap on rising energy price is only temporary phenomenon? There are unlimited oil reserves and the supply exceeds demand.” However, the oil price still soars and the imbalance between energy supply and demand continues.
Research institutes for security of international oil stress that 50% of countries with dependence on oil imports must maintain oil security through means in politics, diplomacy and military. On one hand, they must ensure “they can buy it” and on the other hand, they must ensure “they can transport back home.” Oil security is the foundation of future development for the PRC; therefore how to attain stable sources of oil supply is no longer the economic problem in simple term with respect to oil-security issues for the PRC. The issue involves aspects of politics, diplomacy and military, which must be responded with perspective on national security.
For the PRC, oil transportation bears the national and economic core security interests for China. When faced with the complex traditional and non-traditional security threats from transportation routes, the PRC is undertaking the “String of Pearl” strategy addressed by American scholars, in actions taken to ensure oil supply security. China expects to maintain security in maritime transport corridor via the two-pronged strategy in diplomacy and military, particularly with subtle means in military diplomacy.
In view of the above, “military diplomacy” is truly the preference for PRC in stabilizing sources of oil supply. However the scope involved with military diplomacy is relatively extensive, which is not only limited to military aid, military sale and military cooperation but it could also include scope in political diplomacy such as threat of force and international solidarity. As the comprehensive national strength of PRC continues and its international status rises, the military exchange between China and countries in the world have begun to develop in the depth indirection, broadening areas of interaction and enriching the content. The PRC serves no less than the final decision-making of regional security and forms a subtle relationship with Europe and the United States for future allocation and completion in oil. Oil is likely to become the conflict point of regional power.