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    Title: 兩岸洽簽「兩岸經濟架構協議」下對臺灣與南韓簽訂FTA之可行性研究
    Other Titles: A scenario analysis on fta between Taiwan and and South Korea after “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement(ECFA)”
    Authors: 林春壽;Lin, Chun-Shou
    Contributors: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班
    陳建甫;Dr. Chen Chien-Fu
    Keywords: 兩岸經濟合作架構協議;自由貿易協定;區域整合;情境分析;ECFA;FTA;regional integration;Scenario Analysis
    Date: 2011
    Issue Date: 2011-06-16 21:44:30 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 在WTO杜哈回合談判受挫後,世界各國快速進行區域經濟整合,其中美洲及歐洲整合速度較快,亞洲區域整合雖然較歐美地區較晚,但卻是推動自由貿易協定,最為活躍的地區,惟獨臺灣因國際政治處境特殊,一直無法融入亞太經濟整合的體系,其中臺灣最主要的競爭對手南韓截至2010年12月已經簽訂8個自由貿易協定。臺灣目前僅與中南洲5國簽訂自由貿易協定及與中國簽署兩岸經濟合作架構協議,臺灣為面對世界經濟整合的挑戰,臺灣有必要加緊腳步對外洽簽自由貿易協定,保持經濟競爭力。
      本研究首先總體探討全球區域整合趨勢自由貿易協定類型,切入瞭解兩岸經濟合作架構協定是否為一國際協定及與中國香港更緊密經濟合作安排之差異,並藉檢視臺灣與中國簽訂兩岸經濟合作過程及立場,分析簽訂ECFA可能帶來的效益、政策走向及以SWOT方法預估臺灣簽訂兩岸經濟合作架構協議可能之優勢、機會、弱點及威脅。
      並另以同儕檢視的方式拜訪南韓外交通商部、知識經濟部、對外經濟研究院、產業經濟研究院、三星經濟研究院、農協農業經濟研究院等智庫研究FTA人員以座談或專訪的方式,從南韓角度觀察兩岸經濟合作架構協議對南韓的影響,另一方面觀察南韓對兩岸簽訂經濟合作架構協定的看法,並深入瞭解南韓推動自由貿易協定之進展及推動自由貿易協定的策略,政策變遷及對自由貿易協定的評價。
      以上述的研究基礎探討結果及工作經驗推論臺灣與南韓間在兩岸經濟合作架構協議簽訂之後,研析臺灣擬與南韓間洽談推動自由貿易協定之背景及效益,並以中國阻撓與否為前題,假設臺灣與南韓之間四個情境,臺灣與南韓之間有意願或無意願等四種組,推演可能之行動計劃,交叉討論台韓的立場及可能之行動計劃,預演台韓簽訂自由貿易協定之情況。
      本研究經情境推演結果,發現南韓對與臺灣推動自由貿易協定之立場已因兩岸經濟合作架構協議的簽署,立場逐漸轉變,對臺灣的態度由消極轉變為關切,到目前為止已保留糊模,預留日後洽簽訂自由貿易協定的可能,留對日後共同努力,本研究亦發現臺灣與南韓即使簽訂自由貿易協定,但對臺灣之經濟貢獻僅可增加名目GDP0.1%,臺灣及南韓之實質GDP僅分別增加0.008%及0.006% 臺灣福社水準約增加9,000多萬美元,南韓之福利水準增加1億3,000多萬美元,對雙方之效益不太。臺灣與南韓簽訂之急迫性不大,但據專訪南韓智庫人士的意見認為,臺灣並非南韓優先洽訂自由貿易協定的對象。本研究歸納南韓最有可能與臺灣啟動自由貿易協定的時機,應為韓中洽簽自由貿易協定後。本研究認為臺灣與南韓在短期推動自由貿易協定的可能不高,建議臺灣當務之急應為加強運用兩岸經濟合作架構協議之利基,在韓中自由貿易協定成型之前搶占市場,及加強對外洽簽自由貿易協定,再與南韓研商推動自由貿易協定。
    In recent years, countries of the world have rapidly proceeded regional economic integration after the WTO Doha Round negotiation is failed, however, due to a particular political status internationally, Taiwan has been excluded from economic integration system in APAC region, in which Taiwan’s primary competitor – South Korea has signed 8 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) as of Dec. 2010 while Taiwan, reported 5 FTAs with 5 countries in Central/South American and ECFA with China only, there is a necessity for Taiwan to speed up move to negotiate for ECFA signing to sustain its economic competitiveness while facing a challenge from economic integration worldwide.
      The study has firstly proceeded a discussion on regional integration trend for FTA type in overall to understand whether ECFA is an international agreement and the differences with Closer Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), and to analyze the possible benefits, policy direction enabled by ECFA through examining the process and position of ECFA signing between China and Taiwan, with SWOT analysis introduced to forecast the possible strengths, opportunities, weaknesses and threats that Taiwan might have upon ECFA .
      Moreover, a visit to Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Republic of Korea, Ministry of Knowledge Economy, KIEP, SERI, KREI and personnel of knowledge bank for FTA study by peer review has been proceeded through seminar or one-on-one interview, it on the one hand, observes the impact of ECFA on South Korea from the perspective of South Korea, and on the other hand, observes the viewpoints of South Korea on ECFA signing between China and Taiwan, and get to know the progress of FTA promotion in South Korea, FTA promoting strategies, policy change, and comments on FTA deeply.
      To infer the ECFA signing between Taiwan and South Korea upon the outcomes of above-mentioned study and work experiences, to discuss and analyze the background of FTA promotion, to evaluate possible benefits of FTA signing between China and South Korea after ECFA between China and Taiwan is signed, and, to assume a scenario among Taiwan, China and South Korea upon a prerequisite of China’s obstruction, whether there is an intention between China and South Korea to deduce possible action plans, to cross-discuss China and South Korea’s position and the possible action plans to rehearse the status of ECFA signing between Taiwan and South Korea.
      According to the outcomes derived from the scenario, it is found that South Korea’s attitude toward Taiwan’s position in FTA promotion has gradually changed due to the ECFA signing between China and Taiwan, to switch from passive attitude to an attitude with concern, and is in vague position for the time being; preparing for a possibility of FTA signing with joint effort afterwards. The study also discovered that even Taiwan signs FTA with South Korea, it contributed a 0.1% GDP to Taiwan while the real GDP of Taiwan and South Korea will be increased by 0.008% and 0.006%, respectively. The social welfare contour in Taiwan will be increased by USD 90m or so, while the social welfare contour in South Korea will be increased by USD 130m, reporting less significant benefits to both parties. There is no urgency for Taiwan to sign FTA with South Korea, however, accordingly to the opinions from people of knowledge bank in South Korea, Taiwan is not the first choice for FTA signing to South Korea, in which the study has summarized that the likely timing for South Korea to trigger FTA signing with Taiwan is after FTA between South Korea and China is signed. According to the paper, FTA signing between Taiwan and South Korea is not likely to happen within a short time, it is suggested that an utilization of advantages upon ECFA signing shall be reinforced and is the urgent matter to do for Taiwan, to grab the market before FTA between China and South Korea is settled, to reinforce coordination of external FTA signing and to negotiate with South Korea for FTA promotion.
    Keywords: ECFA, FTA, regional integration
    Appears in Collections:[Graduate Institute of China Studies] Thesis

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