後冷戰時期中國與東協政經關係之研究

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Title:	後冷戰時期中國與東協政經關係之研究
Other Titles:	The research of the dynamic of political economy between China and Asean in the Post-cold War era
Authors:	王貞懿;Wang, Chen-Yi
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班趙春山;Chao, Chun-Shan
Keywords:	東協;中國-東協自由貿易區;睦鄰外交政策;南海主權;ASEAN;China-ASEAN Free Trade Area;Good-Neighbor Diplomacy;South China Sea Issue
Date:	2011
Issue Date:	2011-06-16 21:43:59 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	隨著「中國-東協自由貿易區」於2010年正式上路，全球政經動態進入新的時代。中國與東協關係已透過中國參與東協基礎建設項目更加穩固。可預期地，中國在主權相關議題與能源資源議題方面之影響力超越以往地位，也超越美國與日本等國。因此，東協相關議題的動態均衡已發生快速改變。特別是2008年金融海嘯衝擊，美國的地位與影響力已不如以前。因此美國與中國之間的霸權地位競爭已經形成。基本上，東南亞受創於殖民帝國主義的衝擊猶在。今日的東協不會倚賴單一強權，而採取均衡的大國平衡策略。這現象在南海主權議題逐步浮上檯面而顯得敏感。本研究以國家利益途徑與政治經濟途徑推演，認為中國大陸與東協各國將有“合作、競爭與新均衡”等三階段，具體互動關連如圖5-1所示。長期而言，主權議題為一負面因素。但因為南海主權問題涉及領土、主權利益，也涉及南海航運、石油等眾多實質利益。故在南海主權爭議這樣的零和議題上，東協相關國家為了維護本身的利益，必須引入美國與中國抗衡。故長期而言，美國與中國的角力過程成為中國與東協關係發展之關鍵。 With China-ASEAN Free Trade Area implemented in 2010, the dynamic of global political economy has entered into the new era. The relationship between China and ASEAN has been strengthen by mean of cooperation of infrastructure in the member countries ASEAN. Obviously regarding the sovereign issue and energy resource issue, the influence of China will grow more than the previous and go beyond the ones of United State and Japan. Accordingly, the dynamic equivalence among the issues of ASEAN will change with a rapid pace. Especially after the impact of financial crisis in 2008, the influence of USA has become less important than ever. Thus the new competition between China and United State has shaped. Fundamentally, the impact of the colonialism still affects the diplomacy policy of ASEAN. Under that impact, ASEAN will not depend on single power, especially with South China Sea issue growing more sensitive. Based on the inference and conclusions in this study, our research suggests the model of “Cooperation-Competition-Equilibrium ” to analyze the possible steps and how the relationship of China and ASEAN would go on. The sovereign issue will impact the dynamic of political economy between both parties. However, the long-term relationship development will depend on the competition between China and United States.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of China Studies] Thesis

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