The main purpose of this paper is focused on the damage state prediction of existing concrete viaduct using structural system failure probability. The existing Gang-xi viaduct in Keelung, Taiwan, is used as a case study. Based on the experimental results through the samples cored from the viaduct, the failure probability of each failure model such as carbonation depth, chloride ion content, the compressive strength of concrete, and the concrete surface crack width measured in-situ is calculated according to each failure model. An approximate method of structural system reliability analysis is used to predict the failure probability of the whole viaduct. The predicted result obtained from the proposed method is compared with that result calculated by the dynamic reliability analysis of earthquake resistance structure. The present study result indicates that the proposed method is reasonable, feasible and reliable. The structural system failure probability of the existing viaduct is chiefly influenced by the maximum failure probability of failure model. The larger the failure probability of failure model has, the greater the influence is. The results presented in this study can be used as engineering decision-making for the repair, strengthening or demolition for existing viaduct.
淡江理工學刊=Tamkang Journal of Science and Engineering 12(4)，頁371-379