政黨認同長期以來被視為影響投票抉擇的重要因素，但自2年民進黨贏得執政權後，台灣政黨體系遽變，既為多黨體系，又因國家認同與統獨立場等議題的立場差異而區分為藍綠兩大陣營，導致選民政黨認同亦隨之有所變遷。鑑此，本文擬針對兩次政黨輪替間，台灣選民政黨認同之變遷情形，以及政黨認同與投票抉擇之間的關係進行討論。研究結果發現，朝野政黨的認同者結構確有差異，可以從年齡、教育程度、居住地區、省籍，以及統獨立場等社會人口變數，來區辨各政黨認同者。整體變遷趨勢則是，民進黨維持擁有三成左右的穩定認同者，泛藍政黨則傾向往國民黨認同集中，並維持穩定成長的趨勢。至於政黨認同與投票抉擇之間的關係，則是具有顯著差異。有政黨認同者高度傾向投給所屬政黨的候選人。因此，有政黨認同之選民可目之為選舉當中政黨鐵票，似無疑問。 Party identification has long been regarded as a major factor in determining the vote decision. However, in Taiwan's case, since the Democratic Progress Party (DPP) won the 2000 presidential election, Taiwan's party system changed dramatically, which certainly affected the electorate's party identification. Hence, this study would like to focus on the transition of Taiwanese voters’ party identification and the relationship between party identification and vote decision. The study found that the social structures of Taiwanese political parties are different in terms of age, education level, living area, race, and standpoint of cross-straits relations. As for the transition of party identification, the DPP has a stable block of party identifier (around 30%) and the number of Kuomintang's party identifier (KMT) is growing continually. Furthermore, party identification does affect the vote decision. The voter with a certain party identification tends to vote for the candidate nominated by the party he/she supports.
淡江人文社會學刊=Tamkang Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 40，頁67-90