依時性的動態旅次起迄表係指在某時階下，由起點交通分區至迄點交通分區所產生之旅次量，為交通營運管理與分析之基礎輸入資料，目前高速公路之交通參數蒐集，僅能蒐集與辨識上交流道流量，對於動態旅次起迄表中迄點之交通量，目前仍無法由路側設備資料推估；近年來隨著高速公路電子收費系統(ETC)的實施，可由車上機(On Board Unit, OBU)所記錄的車輛起、迄與時間資訊，彙整成ETC動態旅次起迄表，但仍無法進行高速公路所有車輛動態起迄表之推估。
本研究視ETC動態旅次起迄表與上交流道車流量為觀測資料，視動態旅次起迄資訊為狀態推估變項；則可以建構全新之推估動態旅次起迄表之系統模式，透過適應性之卡門濾波(Klman filter)演算法，以動態線性推估方式，推估出高速公路動態旅次起迄表。最後以PARAMICS軟體模擬高速公路路網，以模擬輸出之部分觀測數據進行動態旅次起迄模式估計，並以模擬輸出之旅次起迄真值作為驗證依據，進行模式估計分析與績效評估。 Dynamic origin-destination (O-D) is defined by the trips production from the origin to the destination in certain time interval. It is essential and compulsory raw data for transportation planning and traffic management. With the traffic parameters collected from vehicle detector(VD), only information of the production ends can be recorded, but the trip attraction of the dynamic O-D matrices however can not be identified simultaneously. Recently, with the helps of the Electronic Toll Collection(ETC) system operation, we could obtain the ETC dynamic O-D by integrating information of origin and destination from the on board unit(OBU). However, the overall dynamic O-D matrix of the toll way remains unsolved with this limited information.
This research regards the volume of trip production and the ETC O-D matrix as observation information, and unknown O-D trip table as the state variables. Then we can develop brand new system model to solve this problem. Employing adaptuve Kalman filter algorithm, the dynamic O-D matrix can be estimated. Finally, the simulation simple case will illustrate the whole algorithm process.
