淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/52036
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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/52036


    Title: 財務危機預警模型之研究 : 考量公司治理與資本結構因素
    Other Titles: A prediction model of financial distress : considering corporate governance and capital structure factors
    Authors: 陳和琴;Chen, He-chin
    Contributors: 淡江大學會計學系碩士在職專班
    葉金成;Yeh, Chin-chen
    Keywords: 會計變數;公司治理;資本結構;財務危機;Accounting Variables;corporate governance;Capital Structure;Financial Distress
    Date: 2010
    Issue Date: 2010-09-23 16:32:34 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 近年來許多企業發生危機的問題，學術與實務界皆認為公司治理機制的強化是解決方法之一。過去的研究大多以財務比率建立預警模型，但財務報表數字常被窗飾，大大降低資料之正確性。也有文獻指出，公司治理機制與資本結構有密切關係，因此本研究加入公司治理變數，及其與資本結構交互作用變數，期能建構更佳的危機預警模型。本研究使用國內上市公司財務資料，研究期間為2006年至2008年被打入全額交割公司作為財務危機企業研究之樣本企業，並隨機抽取相同家數之正常企業為對照樣本，先以會計變數建立邏吉斯迴歸模型，再加入公司治理變數，及公司治理與資本結構交互作用變數，建立新的預測模型，並以2009年資料檢測預測的準確性。
    研究結果發現，當僅納入會計變數所建構的模型，雖亦有良好的預測能力，但再加入公司治理變數及公司治理與資本結構交互作用變數後，所建立的模型其預測準確性更高。同時也發現，負債比例過高，足以影響企業危機的發生，另發現公司治理因素與財務危機具有顯著的關係。故當企業之公司治理較弱時，應注意其財務危機發生的可能性。
    In recent years, many enterprises have crisis, academics and practitioners are believed to strengthen corporate governance (CG) is a solution. Previous studies always use financial ratios to construct financial distress warning models. But the accounting numbers often been modified, which will reduce the accuracy of the information. CG and capital structure (CS) are related each other in some studies. Therefore, I expected to join the CG variables and the CG and CS interacting variables to establish a better model. This study use data from 2006 to 2009 in the Taiwan listed companies to construct and test models. The results showed that the model has the better prediction ability while it involves CG variables, CG and CS interacting variables. Also found that corporate governance and financial distress are significant. Therefore, the financial distress may occur when poor corporate governance has existed.
    Appears in Collections:[Graduate Institute & Department of Accounting] Thesis

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