企業乃以獲利及永續經營為目的，身處於經濟發展過程中，對於外在環境與因素的變化，並無法控制，不管經營或績效都會受到經濟的影響。故需要探討經濟周期對企業績效與危機的決定影響因素為何?以便企業或投資人可以提早規避風險及改善。本研究以2002-2008年台灣上市櫃企業為樣本，利用Logistic迴歸及多元迴歸分析，探討不同經濟周期下企業績效與危機決定因素之關聯性。實證結果:(1)企業危機之決定因素，景氣繁榮期下為「負債比率有正向影響」及「資本額有負向影響」;景氣衰退期下為「資本額有負向影響」、「速動比率有負向影響」及「每股盈餘有負向影響」，代表景氣繁榮期企業需隨時注意資本結構，景氣衰退期需注意資金的流動性與獲利能力，如此才可降低發生危機的機率。(2)企業績效之決定因素，景氣繁榮期下為「每股盈餘對資產報酬率及股東權益報酬率有正向影響」、「固定資產週轉率對股東權益報酬率有正向影響」；景氣衰退期下為「每股盈餘對資產報酬率有正向影響」、「負債比率對資產報酬率有負向影響」，代表景氣繁榮期企業需隨時注意經營效率，景氣衰退期需注意獲利能力與資本結構，如此才可提昇績效。(3)企業績效與危機兩者之決定因素，景氣衰退期下為「每股盈餘對資產報酬率有正向影響；對企業危機有負向影響」，另外在景氣繁榮期下發現長期資金適合度比對企業績效與危機有負向的影響。總結任何的因素，大多並不會同時的存在於績效及危機間，大多僅影響一方。 In process of the economic development, enterprises aim on operation and profitable. When external environment factors change, the operation and performance would be impact. This study explores the association of determinants of the business performance and crisis in terms of the business cycle. The sample data from 2002 to 2008''s listed companies in Taiwan and using logistic regression and multiple regression analysis. Empirical results: (1) the determinants of crisis, in prosperity is "debt ratio has positive effects" and "capital has negative effects"; in recession is "capital has negative effects" and " quick ratio has negative effects" and "earnings per share has negative effects". In prosperity the capital structure and in recession the liquidity and profitability need to be alert, this can reduce the occurrence of a crisis probability. (2) the determinants of business performance, in prosperity is "earnings per share with return on assets or return on equity has positive effects" and "fixed asset turnover rate with return on equity has positive effects"; in recession is "earnings per share with return on assets has positive effects" and "debt ratio with return on assets has negative effects". In prosperity the business efficiency and in recession the profitability and capital structure has needs to be alert, so can improve the business performance. (3) the determinants of business performance and crisis, in recession is "earnings per share and return on assets has positive effects with crisis has negative effects", in prosperity that long-term funds/fixed assets ratio on business performance and crisis has negative effects. Concluded that any factor most of not simultaneously exist in the performance and crisis, the affected only has the performance or crisis.
