巨災損失對產險費率釐訂之研究

淡江大學機構典藏 > 商管學院 > 風險管理與保險學系 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/51737

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题名:	巨災損失對產險費率釐訂之研究
其它题名:	A study of property insurance ratemaking on catastrophe loss
作者:	李家瑋;Li, Jia-wei
贡献者:	淡江大學保險學系保險經營碩士班廖述源;Liao, Shuh-yuan
关键词:	巨災損失;費率釐訂;特別準備金;安全率;逆選擇;Catastrophe Loss;Ratemaking;Special Loss Reserve;Factor of Safety;Adverse Selection
日期:	2010
上传时间:	2010-09-23 15:57:11 (UTC+8)
摘要:	近年來，世界各國巨災頻傳，例如：溫室效應、海平面上升以及氣候異常，將造成人類生命及財物重大損失。有些小島國家甚至遭受滅國危機，被迫遷移國外或向他國政府購地。由於新興發展中國家快速發展，使得經濟與環保問題難以取得平衡。各國人口快速增加與經濟趨向密集發展，保險公司承保標的物之金額有趨大集中之現象，一旦發生災害，賠償金額將會急速攀升，使保險公司穩定經營之目標無法達成，導致清償能力下降，最後可能面臨倒閉問題。全球巨災風險亞洲之最，但其保險事業並不如歐美普及，以致發生保險事故時，亞洲各國保險賠款相對低；而歐美國家，由於保險密度高，儘管巨災風險發生頻率較低，但保險賠款卻很高。台灣位處地震帶，且四面環海，故地震與颱風為我國常見之天災。1999年9月21日我國發生芮氏規模7.3強大地震，當時國內投保火險有附加地震險者及汽車保險中有附加地震險者皆僅約1%，可以看出國人投保地震險之比例極低，導致無法藉由地震保險來減輕財產之損失，藉此政府應加強宣導投保巨災險之重要性，並採取強制納保及誘發自發性投保雙管齊下，如此一來，可降低巨災帶給國民之損失。本文除概述巨災及費率釐訂之意義，並且模擬產險費率釐訂試算流程，亦考量物價指數，期估算出合理巨災之費率。此外，希望我國政府能重新檢核現行產險費率結構、建立巨災損失統計資料庫、及培養產險精算人才，並透過立法方式加強巨災危險管理，藉以提昇全民巨災之投保意願。 Recently, catastrophes occur more frequently than before around the world, for example, greenhouse effects, rising sea levels and anomalies in climate. These catastrophes have caused heavy losses of human life and property. Some small island countries are threatened with extinction and are forced to migrate to other places or to buy pieces of land from other governments. As some developing countries are growing rapidly, it is not easy to strike a balance between economics and environmental protection. World population is growing rapidly and economics tends to have targeted development. The subject matters insured tend to be highly valued. In case a disaster happens, the amount of compensation will be extremely high, and it might make stable management of an insurance company impossible and lower its solvency. Eventually, some might shut down. Catastrophic risk occurs most frequently in Asia, however, insurance business is not as popular as that in Europe and America. When it comes to insurance compensation, Asian companies tend to pay low insurance indemnity. Unlike Asian companies, companies in the United States and Europe can pay a much higher indemnity due to the popularity of insurance purchase and low frequency of catastrophic happenings. Taiwan is located in an earthquake zone and is surrounded by the sea, so disasters caused by earthquakes and typhoons are common in Taiwan. On September 21, 1999, Taiwan underwent a powerful magnitude 7.3 earthquake. At that time, among those who buy fire and automobile insurance, only 1% of them had additional earthquake insurance. It is obvious that people in Taiwan tend not to buy earthquake insurance. In this case, people are not likely to lessen their loss of properties via the purchase of earthquake insurance. It might be a good chance for the government to make aware of the importance of purchasing catastrophe insurance and to impose catastrophe insurance on people or to encourage voluntary purpose. This might lessen people’s loss caused by natural catastrophe.In addition to an overview of natural catastrophes and the significance of setting insurance rates, this paper also presents the process of calculating insurance rates. In the process, I also consider the price index in order to have reasonable estimation of the insurance rates for a catastrophe. Furthermore, I suggest that our government can re-examine the existing system of production insurance rate and establish statistical databases of catastrophic loss and train property and casualty insurance actuarial experts. On the other hand, it is hoped that catastrophic risk management can be enhanced through legislative means in order to motivate people to buy universal catastrophic insurance.
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