有鑑於近年來發生的財務危機，皆是因為公司內部監督機制不足、管理者的誠信問題所導致的，因此本篇除了以一般財務危機預警模型最常用到的財務比率資料外，亦加入公司治理變數，期望預警模型預測危機公司的能力能達到最佳。然而，要將預警模型應用在不同規模的企業前，首先介紹財務危機預警模型的發展，接著也對各財務比率做詳盡的介紹，例如財務比率的五大構面，以及此五大構面對於公司營運的影響，以期望能對預警模型的內容有全盤性的了解。在充分了解財務危機預警模型後，將中小企業與大企業中發生財務危機的公司其前一年、前二年、前三年資料納入模型，以Logit迴歸分析對此二種規模企業做分析，並加入模型的檢驗方法，希望適用於各規模的預警模型能具有最佳的模型解釋力。 實證結果顯示，對中小型企業而言，Nagelkerke R2與Cox and Snell R2指標檢驗模型在前三年0.273、0.198，前二年0.479、0.347，皆增加到前一年0.690、0.500； 風險從前三年57.6%、前二年38.2%、減少到前一年25%，大企業亦同時有相同情況。因此，不論中小型企業或是大企業，其模型確實能在越接近財務危機發生時，越具有能力預測即將發生財務危機的公司，且可同時推論對於不同規模的企業間，其適用的財務危機預警模型也不同。 In view of many financial crises occur in recent years, often caused by incomplete interior management. Hence, this article not only use financial ratio to build general financial distress model, but also join the corporate governance variables. We expect this model which had excellent performance. However, before we apply financial distress model in every scaled companies, we should introduce financial ratio which will be used in financial distress model and realize how to influence company’s operations. After realizing financial distress model, we separate company from small and median scaled enterprises and large firms. Then we compare them in Logit model and find the appropriate model which had best performance. The empirical result indicates that, for small and median scaled enterprises, there are having high Nagelkerke R2 and Cox and Snell R2. At the same time, there is also having low risk. The large firms have the same result. Therefore, no matter small and median scaled enterprises or large firms, we can find the appropriate model to increase the models’ forecasting performance.
