後冷戰時期美國經濟制裁政策成效之經濟計量分析─以美國獨立視角進行探究

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Title:	後冷戰時期美國經濟制裁政策成效之經濟計量分析─以美國獨立視角進行探究
Other Titles:	An econometric analysis of the effectiveness of U.S. economic sanctions in the post-cold war era─from the independent viewpoint of the U.S.
Authors:	張峰瑋;Chang, Feng-wei
Contributors:	淡江大學美國研究所碩士班柯大衛;Kleykamp, David
Keywords:	經濟計量分析;成效;經濟制裁;後冷戰;econometric analysis;Effectiveness;economic sanction;Post-Cold War
Date:	2010
Issue Date:	2010-09-23 15:19:43 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	冷戰結束之後，國際環境朝向一個新的里程碑發展，世界自此走向一個由美國領導、監督的「新秩序」之中。只是，國力強大且動機強烈的美國卻無法藉此消弭來自於各國的不合作與挑戰，而國際之間的大小紛爭更是未曾停息過。所以，值此環境下的經濟制裁手段便成為美國對外作為之中，值得學者投入的一個研究環節。本論文首先從博弈理論出發，以Jonathan Eaton及Maxim Engers於1999年所發表的研究內容作為對經濟制裁兩造互動的認知基礎所在，更藉此提出我們對於制裁成效的三項假說(H1、H2、以及H3)。接著則是以Gary C. Hufbauer等人針對1914年至2000年間國際經濟制裁政策進行研究之途徑為範本，再從前面所提及的三項假說之中延伸出十八項可供實證分析驗證的解釋變數選項。最後，在備妥了制裁案例及各項變數之後，本論文利用「一般最小帄方法」以及「邏輯迴歸」兩種迴歸計量方法來針對後冷戰時期美國經濟制裁政策成效進行相關的實證分析與討論。經過本論文的探究之後，首先，我們發現美國於後冷戰時期對外施行經濟制裁之成效約莫落在兩成九左右。除此之外，在實證分析的結果之中，更發現到美國值此時期的經濟制裁成效主要受到四項解釋變數的顯著影響，包括：(一)目標國制裁損失；(二)目標國與美貿易關係；(三)目標國與美生產毛額比；(四)目標國是否為西方國家。 After the end of Cold War, the overall international situations are headed for the new stage, or so called the “new world order” led and supervised by the U.S. hegemony. However, being the sole power in the post-Cold War era doesn’t mean the U.S. can remove all the barriers at her will easily. Noncooperation and challenges from all around the world are still rampant. Under such a circumstance, the effectiveness of initiating economic sanctions will be a good touch-stone for both politicians and academics to explore thoroughly. In the beginning, we start with the “game theory”, taking Jonathan Eaton and Maxim Engers’ research paper (1999) as the principal theoretical structure on which we base our understanding of the effectiveness of sanctions and the interactions between the sender and the targets, then we propose three hypotheses (H1, H2, and H3). After that, we partially follow the researching approach of Gary C. Hufbauer et al. did in their book, and finally setting up 18 different explanatory variables for running regressions. After collecting all the sanction cases and related variables, we use two different methods, “ordinary least square, OLS” and “Logit Regression”, to examine the connection between each explanatory variable and the effectiveness of sanctions. According to our researching outcomes, we firstly conclude the effectiveness of U.S. economic sanctions in the post-Cold War era (1989-2009) is almost 29%. Besides, we also find out that there are four explanatory variables can be strongly and significantly connected to the effectiveness of 58 sanction cases, which includes: (1)cost to the target;(2)trade linkage;(3)GNP ratio;(4)whether the target located in the west-hemisphere or not.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of American Studies] Thesis

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