English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 62797/95867 (66%)
造访人次 : 3733643      在线人数 : 347
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧:
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号",以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻,建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段,可获得较完整数据
  • 进阶搜寻


    jsp.display-item.identifier=請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/51390


    题名: 兩岸衝突避免機制研究與展望
    其它题名: Conflict prevention mechanism across the Taiwan strait
    作者: 易仲錢;Yih, Jung-chian
    贡献者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
    黃介正
    关键词: 軍事互信;避免衝突;兩岸和平;Conflict;Prevention;the Taiwan Strait
    日期: 2010
    上传时间: 2010-09-23 15:11:17 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 就目前兩岸交流協商當中,大陸對台工作政策的確已經傾向非直接武力下統一;這從02-08年中共國防報告書內容敘述中,有關「台灣問題」處理政策方面,由武力政策逐漸轉向法統政策,藉此就可以得到佐證。所以,間接證明兩岸「和平互動模式」是現階段政策。
    然現階段兩岸軍事幾乎無任何信心可言的情勢下,要直接以「軍事互信機制」來創造兩岸和平,恐怕是操之過急,因為「軍事互信機制」主要是國與國間使用,而中共並沒把我中華民國認定為一個「國家」,所以這個時機應該還沒有到;但是在此過程中先進行建構「衝突避免機制」它卻是可行的,這個機制也是連結爾後「軍事互信機制」議題最好的階段作為。
    國際學者邁可克瑞朋(Michael Krepon)將有關預防衝突理論劃分為三個階段:第一階段先建立衝突避免,第二階段雙方信心建立,第三階段強化和平。建立衝突避免機制是一個信任累積的過程,首先兩岸先暫時擱置政治爭議,在不涉及兩岸重大利益的議題上先進行一些軍事交流合作,不失為一種推進兩岸良性互動的最佳戰略。
    軍事交流的主要功能也是為了避免衝突,而不是打贏戰爭。因此,以軍事交流作為來促進彼此之間的政治互信是可以發揮加乘作用。當這些舉措逐漸被兩岸人民所認知、所接受,加上持續累積兩岸其他方面如經濟、政治、文化互信互助合作,相信在不久時機成熟時,兩岸永久和平將會自然而然水到渠成。
    In light of the current ways of negotiation between China and Taiwan in economy, politics and cultural exchanges, China’s policies on Taiwan have shifted to non-military unification. This pattern is validated in China’s National Defense Report from 2002 to 2009. In terms of “Taiwan issue,” China’s position has never changed, though China seems to be “softener and harder in some aspects.”
    Currently, both China and Taiwan have fragile confidence in military affairs; hence, relying on the “military mutual trust mechanism” to bring about peace is too hasty. Another reason is that this mechanism is mainly utilized between countries, and since Taiwan is not a “country” recognized by China, the timing is not appropriate for both parties to implement this mechanism. As a result, prior to this process, China has constructed a “conflict prevention mechanism” to pave the way for the “military mutual trust mechanism.”
    Michael Krepon divided conflict prevention theory into three stages: 1) initiate conflict prevention; 2) both parties establish mutual confidence; 3) strengthen peace state. The construction of conflict prevention mechanism is a process which confidence is accumulated. During this period, China and Taiwan temporary set aside political disputes and engage in military cooperation in areas with minimal interests, which is considered optimal strategy for promoting benign interactions.
    The primary function of military exchange is to prevent conflict and not to win the war. As a result, military exchange could raise political trust to a higher degree. When these strategies are perceived and accepted by Chinese and Taiwanese people and when mutual cooperation in economy, politics, and culture is established, the goal of perpetual peace will be reached.
    显示于类别:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 大小格式浏览次数
    index.html0KbHTML266检视/开启

    在機構典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.

    TAIR相关文章

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - 回馈