兩岸衝突避免機制研究與展望

淡江大學機構典藏 > 國際事務學院 > 國際事務與戰略研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/51390

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/51390

Title:	兩岸衝突避免機制研究與展望
Other Titles:	Conflict prevention mechanism across the Taiwan strait
Authors:	易仲錢;Yih, Jung-chian
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班黃介正
Keywords:	軍事互信;避免衝突;兩岸和平;Conflict;Prevention;the Taiwan Strait
Date:	2010
Issue Date:	2010-09-23 15:11:17 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	就目前兩岸交流協商當中，大陸對台工作政策的確已經傾向非直接武力下統一；這從02-08年中共國防報告書內容敘述中，有關「台灣問題」處理政策方面，由武力政策逐漸轉向法統政策，藉此就可以得到佐證。所以，間接證明兩岸「和平互動模式」是現階段政策。然現階段兩岸軍事幾乎無任何信心可言的情勢下，要直接以「軍事互信機制」來創造兩岸和平，恐怕是操之過急，因為「軍事互信機制」主要是國與國間使用，而中共並沒把我中華民國認定為一個「國家」，所以這個時機應該還沒有到；但是在此過程中先進行建構「衝突避免機制」它卻是可行的，這個機制也是連結爾後「軍事互信機制」議題最好的階段作為。國際學者邁可克瑞朋(Michael Krepon)將有關預防衝突理論劃分為三個階段：第一階段先建立衝突避免，第二階段雙方信心建立，第三階段強化和平。建立衝突避免機制是一個信任累積的過程，首先兩岸先暫時擱置政治爭議，在不涉及兩岸重大利益的議題上先進行一些軍事交流合作，不失為一種推進兩岸良性互動的最佳戰略。軍事交流的主要功能也是為了避免衝突，而不是打贏戰爭。因此，以軍事交流作為來促進彼此之間的政治互信是可以發揮加乘作用。當這些舉措逐漸被兩岸人民所認知、所接受，加上持續累積兩岸其他方面如經濟、政治、文化互信互助合作，相信在不久時機成熟時，兩岸永久和平將會自然而然水到渠成。 In light of the current ways of negotiation between China and Taiwan in economy, politics and cultural exchanges, China’s policies on Taiwan have shifted to non-military unification. This pattern is validated in China’s National Defense Report from 2002 to 2009. In terms of “Taiwan issue,” China’s position has never changed, though China seems to be “softener and harder in some aspects.” Currently, both China and Taiwan have fragile confidence in military affairs; hence, relying on the “military mutual trust mechanism” to bring about peace is too hasty. Another reason is that this mechanism is mainly utilized between countries, and since Taiwan is not a “country” recognized by China, the timing is not appropriate for both parties to implement this mechanism. As a result, prior to this process, China has constructed a “conflict prevention mechanism” to pave the way for the “military mutual trust mechanism.” Michael Krepon divided conflict prevention theory into three stages: 1) initiate conflict prevention; 2) both parties establish mutual confidence; 3) strengthen peace state. The construction of conflict prevention mechanism is a process which confidence is accumulated. During this period, China and Taiwan temporary set aside political disputes and engage in military cooperation in areas with minimal interests, which is considered optimal strategy for promoting benign interactions. The primary function of military exchange is to prevent conflict and not to win the war. As a result, military exchange could raise political trust to a higher degree. When these strategies are perceived and accepted by Chinese and Taiwanese people and when mutual cooperation in economy, politics, and culture is established, the goal of perpetual peace will be reached.
Appears in Collections:	[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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