中共潛艦突穿第一島鏈之戰略意涵

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Title:	中共潛艦突穿第一島鏈之戰略意涵
Other Titles:	The strategic significance of PRC submarines breaking through the 1st island chain
Authors:	呂振安;Lu, Chen-an
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班曾復生;Tzeng, James F.
Keywords:	第一島鏈;藍水海軍;軍力投射;戰略威懾;the 1st island chain;blue water navy
Date:	2010
Issue Date:	2010-09-23 15:11:06 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	近年來，中共經濟成長帶動軍事崛起，其影響並不侷限於台海或是東北亞，將牽動亞太區域甚或國際秩序穩定與安全。中共海軍戰略計畫，就是要在下一個世紀前20年，把作戰海區從第一島鏈擴及至第二島鏈，以有效控制南海。未來將防禦範圍擴及至西太平洋，期能與美國相互抗衡。中共潛艦東出西太平洋，除凸顯中共海軍已掌握第一島鏈內海底水文資料，突破反潛防禦網，自由進出第一島鏈，並直接威脅與挑戰美、日、台三方的國家利益與安全。中共展示了其潛艦進入西太平洋爭奪海洋霸權的企圖與能力，其背後隱藏之戰略意涵及所牽動的美、日、中、台間的關係與發展寓意極為深遠。美國為因應未來「中國崛起」的海上強權勢力與面對中共潛艦突穿第一島鏈，以「第二島鏈」「圍堵」防線「先制」、「以退為進」的戰略部署態勢，逐步強化美軍兵力運用的靈活度與彈性，俾能肆應西太平洋區域任何可能發生的情況。而面對美軍軍力「圍堵」與「嚇阻」威脅下，中共的潛艦則扮演反制「嚇阻」、突穿「圍堵」的最有效利器與角色。因此，中共海軍潛艦未來的作戰能力，將攸關西太平洋區域海軍戰力衡量的重要指標。就台灣言，中共海軍穿越第一島鏈從事跨島鏈遠航訓練，其遠洋作戰能力，對我台海東岸安全及戰時海軍疏泊、集結海域易遭全方位攻擊威脅，不利台灣海域早期預警時間，對台澎防衛作戰所造成之衝擊與影響不言可喻。整體而言，中共積極擴張海權，邁向藍水海軍，實非僅具單純之軍事戰略意涵，應包含政治、經濟等等複雜且相互牽動關係與含意；其整體戰略目標係在維護海洋權益與戰略資源，確保戰略通道安全、爭取海洋經濟利益，並凸顯其「反介入」實力、遠程軍力投射、擴大其海疆作戰縱深及戰略威懾能量、驗證遠距指管效能、測試潛艦在不同海域的作戰統合與由近海朝遠海、戰略機動作戰能力等多面向之戰略意涵。因此，潛艦發展與反潛作戰能力勢將成為各國擴張海權的首要評量指標。中共海軍軍力投射與戰略威懾能量亦是亞太區域各國同應面對與正視的課題。 In past few years, China’s economic fast growth has brought forth its military abrupt rise, which not only affected the situation of Taiwan Strait and Northeast Asia, but also the stability and security in Asia-Pacific region; and international communities. According to the strategic plan of Chinese Navy in the future, China plans to extend its waters of military operations from the 1st Island Chain to the 2nd Island Chain in order to effectively control South China Sea; Furthermore, it will extend its waters of defense to western Pacific Ocean in an attempt to content with the United States. It is indicated from the deployment of Chinese submarines to western Pacific Ocean that the Chinese Navy has a full knowledge about hydrologic data in the waters of the 1st Island Chain that will help PLAN submarines break through the anti-submarine defense network and transit in/out of the 1st Island Chain freely. This will pose a direct threat and challenge to the safety and national interests of U.S., Japan and Taiwan. The strategic significance for China to display its attempts and capabilities of deploying its submarines into western Pacific Ocean was very profound and we believe that it will deeply affect the relationship and development among U.S., Japan, China and Taiwan. In response to the Chinese military rise and the PRC submarines breaking through the 1st Island Chain, the U.S. plans to block the 2nd Island Chain by using pre-emptive measures and tactics of retreat but advance in a bid to gradually enhance the mobility and flexibility of U.S. operations to deal with any abrupt incidents in the waters of western Pacific Ocean. Under the threats of blockade and deterrence posed by U.S. forces, Chinese submarines become an edged tool to counter the U.S. blockade and deterrence. Therefore, the operational capabilities of Chinese Navy in the future will be a vital index showing the balance of military power in the western Pacific Ocean. From the aspect of Taiwan, the out-of-area deployment training of Chinese submarines while breaking through the 1st Island Chain will pose serious threats to the security along the eastern Taiwan coast and let Taiwan military ships facer the multiple attacks in the berthing and assembly areas. As of the time of early warning being shortened, it will cause a great impact and influence on the military operations in Taiwan and Penghu islands. Overall, the significance of military strategies for China to actively expand its maritime sovereignty and develop the blue-water Navy is not so simple but involved with complicated elements of politic- and economy-level issues. The overall strategic targets with multiple strategic significance are to include: defend the maritime rights/interests, safeguard the strategic resources and passages, fight for oceanographic economic benefits, display its capabilities of anti-intervention and long-range force projection, expand the depth of operations at sea, promote the capability of strategic deterrence, prove the performance of C2 out of the long distance, and test the integrated operational capabilities of submarines from different waters and mobile deployment from coastal waters to open sea. Therefore, the development of submarine and anti-submarine operational capability will be considered as the first important index for each country to expand its maritime sovereignty. Based on this, China Navy’s power projection and strategic deterrence capability shall be faced by countries in Asia-Pacific region.
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