一、面對中共軍事力量崛起，美國已被迫提前在以關島為戰略前沿基地的第二島鏈，與中共形成長期軍事對峙態勢。因此，預見兩岸未來戰略態勢發展及和平穩定的關鍵因素，就是美、「中」在西太平洋戰略攻守態勢的轉變。 二、中共海軍近年來大幅擴張軍力、頻繁進出島鏈、編組遠洋護航編隊及探測西太平洋海域水文等舉動，與美國在關島的兵力部署調整、美、日發展反潛戰力與聯合監偵的戰略對峙意涵非常明確。 三、因應威脅日增的中共海軍，美軍在西太平洋所面臨的風險已然提升，甚至影響其在台海情勢中的制衡作用。基此，美國、日本均極力維持先進的水下兵力及嚇阻能力。相對地，反潛作戰已成為中共「反介入戰略」中至為關鍵的軍事能量。 四、審視解放軍的對台威懾能力，我國如何在中共的「反介入」、美、日的「反反介入」等挑戰中迂迴周旋，謀求國家生存、發展與戰略價值的維護，實為重要之課題。 Facing China’s rising up in military force, U.S.has reluctantly moved ahead to the Guam-based strategy frontline of the Second Island chain against China in the long run. Thus, It can be predicted that the development of future strategic position and peaceful stability count on strategic position transformation between U.S. and China in the west Pocific Ocean. In recent years, China Navy has been expanding forces, frequently going back and forth to Guam, organizing far-sea escort fleet, and exploring hydrology in the west Pacific Ocean, etc. China’s intention explicitly confronts those actions taken in force deployment adjustment of Guam, and anti-submarine development and joint reconnaissance by U.S. and Japan. Mounting threat from China makes U.S. troops more risky in the west Pacific Ocean and even affects counterbalance across Taiwan Strait. Accordingly, U.S. and Japan are more engaging in the maintance of advance underwater forces and deterrence capability. In contrast, anti-submarine has become the crucial military force of China’s“Anti-Access” strategy. After examining the threat from China, critical attention should be paied to pursue our national existence and development, and maintance of strategic value in the challenge of China’s “Anti-Access” and U.S. and Japan’s “Counter Anti-Access” strategy.
