| 摘要: | 石油是近年來各國海上貿易的主要貨物之ㄧ，本研究藉由研析中國大陸的石油安全地緣政治因素，探討中國石油運輸安全問題，進一步了解中國和平崛起為確保海上石油運輸通道安全所採取的策略與措施，以瞭解石油安全戰略對中國國家安全與對外關係之影響。
本研究從中國能源供需的現況與中國和平崛起之起源、海權與地緣安全等相關理論，據此提出四個問題：中國和平崛起後的地緣政治因素為何？對中國石油安全的影響層面為何？石油運輸安全面對的威脅來自哪些方面？如何面對複雜的國際形勢，透過經濟、外交、軍事作為來維護石油供應的運輸安全？主要目的是透過研析中國石油海上運輸安全與威脅，以提供我國對於「石油安全」議題的反思。
本研究對中國維護海上運輸安全的策略提出探討，第一是建立遠程海洋軍事現代化，如提升海上遠洋作戰能力、建立珍珠線鏈港口、增加國油國運配比等，第二是參與區域組織安全合作，從敦親睦鄰、中美海事安全合作、以及成立海事安全部隊，第三為建構網路替代路線分散風險積極建立陸上運輸油管，從俄羅斯、中亞等國的油管、與建構東南亞地區的陸路鐵公路與油管等。
結論提出中國和平崛起之新形象、安全觀、國際觀等重要發現，論述和平崛起與石油運輸地緣衝突、經濟發展重點、消弭威脅疑慮、發展海上自主能力、美國防堵思維、台灣問題等議題，最後由石油與國家安全關聯認知，延伸中國和平崛起對於爭取穩定地緣戰略、發揮軟實力影響東南亞地區、運用地緣掌握石油運輸政策、建立遠程海軍戰略等啟示，期望能提醒國人對石油議題的注意與反思。
Petroleum has been one of the main maritime cargos among countries for recent years. This study investigates the petroleum transport security problems by analyzing the geopolitical factors of oil security in China. Seen in this light, this study gains further understanding of the strategies and steps adopted to ensure the safety of oil waterways under the peaceful rise of China so as to realize the impact of oil security strategies on the national security of China and external relationship.
This study hereby on the basis of the current energy supply and demand in China, the origin of the peaceful rise of China as well as relative theories regarding sea power and geopolitical security proposes four questions: what the geopolitical factors after the peaceful rise of China are; what the aspects influenced by the China petroleum security are; with what fields of threat the petroleum transport security can be confronted; how to maintain the transport security of oil supply through economics, foreign affairs, and military actions with the complex international situation.
This study proposes some discussion on the basis of the strategy adopted by China to maintain the waterway transport security. The first strategy is the establishment of long distance marine modernization such as the advance of far ocean battle ability, the establishment of pearl chained harbors and the increase of proportion of national oil through national transport. The second strategy is the participation of security collaboration among regional organizations from the marine security collaboration between China and America to the establishment of maritime security troops. The third strategy is the establishment of internet substitute route to dilute the risk such as the construction of land pipeline from Russia to the Middle East and the railways, the highways as well as the pipeline in the Southeast area.
This study concludes by proposing the conditions, the new image, the view of security and development as well as the international perspective of the peaceful rise of China. Findings illustrate issues regarding the peaceful rise of China and the geopolitical conflict of petroleum transit, economical developmental key points, vanishment of threats and concerns, development of autonomy at sea, American mindset of containment and Taiwan problem. At last, with the expectation to draw public attention onto oil issues and reflections, this study reaches from the understanding of the connection between petroleum and national security to the manifestation of China’s peaceful rise to gain stable geopolitical strategies, influence of soft power onto the Southeast area, utilization of geopolitical factors to control oil transport policy and establishment of long distance navy strategy. |
